“No nuclear agreement means a certain possibility of war in the Middle East.”

Written by – Elijah J. Magnier:

The negotiation marathon began positively in Vienna between Iran on the one hand and the signatories to the 2015 nuclear agreement on the other, excepting the US, whose President Donald Trump tore apart the deal in 2018. Iran continues to refuse the US visible presence in the negotiating meeting room. Negative but unfounded information spread in the last hours about the outcome of the meeting between Iran and the western negotiators. However, there should not be any expectation that positivity will dominate every discussion. There will be no agreement until the deal is signed. Therefore, it is expected that the last birth pangs of a US-Iran nuclear deal with modified terms will undoubtedly be painful.

It is expected that the negotiations will be complicated for several reasons related to the US and Iranian positions, which indicates that agreement is not within easy reach. Indeed, failure may outweigh the reasons for success unless there is a serious demonstrated commitment from the US to be “rightful in its intentions”.

Iran has several immediate and vital demands. These include the lifting of sanctions, the compensation for all the losses caused by the US unilateral withdrawal and sanctions, and a clause offering security that no additional sanctions will be imposed and that international companies be allowed to operate in Iran.

“Let us not negotiate out of fear but let us not be afraid to negotiate. Let the two sides explore the problems that unite us instead of thinking about the problems that divide us.” This is what US President John F. Kennedy said in 1961, and was quoted by President Barack Obama in mid-2015 when he announced the birth of the nuclear agreement with Iran. That day, to his right, Vice President Joe Biden (the current president) was standing, apparently in full acceptance of Obama’s speech.

At the time, Obama rightly said, from a position of power, that “the agreement is not based on trust, but on ensuring that the parties abide by its terms.” This is the first current knot that prevents both parties to reinstate the 2015 agreement once more. That is due to the already existing lack of confidence in 2015 amplified and confirmed in 2021 by President Trump’s destruction of the agreement in 2018. President Obama said: “After three years of negotiation, America has reached an agreement that it has been unable to reach for decades (since the victory of the “Islamic Revolution”) of hostility.” The state of hostility has not changed, especially after the US assassination of the most famous Iranian officer – Major General Qassem Soleimani, in Baghdad during a diplomatic mission assigned to him by Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi. In addition, the narrative that the US and Israel are preparing military exercises in the Mediterranean bears the title “preparation for possible military action against Iran.” Consequently, the language of diplomacy in Vienna coincides with verbal military escalation language, insinuating an intention to “knock on the doors” of the Islamic Republic physically. On the other side, Iran and its allies are not unprepared for the worst possibilities if diplomacy fails 

Proofread by: Maurice Brasher