Who benefits from the turmoil in the Red Sea? Unpacking the roles of Iran, the US and China

By Elijah J. Magnier:

Instead of pressuring Tel Aviv to end the blockade of Gaza and cease hostilities, the United States has sought China’s help in stopping Ansar Allah (Houthi) attacks on ships bound for Israel or carrying Israeli goods and attempting to cross Bab el-Mandeb. This approach appears to favour engaging international partners to address specific facets of the conflict rather than directly addressing the underlying issues of the Israeli war on the Palestinians as the real issue to tackle. In response, China has called on the US to cease the Israeli war and stop all bombings in Yemen.

The continued transit of Chinese, Russian and other nations’ ships through the Red Sea amid these tensions underlines the global importance of this maritime route. The reluctance of many countries to disrupt their vital trade, despite the risks, highlights the crucial role of the Red Sea as an artery for international trade, particularly for the movement of goods from Asia to the Middle East and Europe.

Iran’s role is demonstrated by its assurances to China that it will guarantee the supply of Asian goods via the Red Sea, and its pledge not to target Chinese ships underlines the multifaceted nature of the conflict. Iran’s involvement reflects its strategic interest in maintaining regional stability and trade routes while supporting its allies in Yemen. This action is part of Iran’s broader regional strategy, which seeks to balance supporting Ansar Allah and maintaining favourable relations with key trading partners such as China.

These developments paint a picture of a complex tapestry of geopolitical interests, with each nation navigating the challenges posed by the Red Sea conflict according to its strategic priorities. The US appears to be focused on Israel’s immediate security concerns, China on securing its trade routes, and Iran on balancing regional alliances with economic interests and the support to its allies in Gaza, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon.

The Red Sea is increasingly becoming a focal point of geopolitical tensions, transforming into a contentious battle zone with far-reaching implications, particularly for Europe. The critical question is “Cui bono?” or “Who benefits” from such a situation?

The situation in the Red Sea, where there has been a reduction in maritime traffic, is a direct consequence of the heightened geopolitical tensions in the region. The decision by the United States and the United Kingdom to launch bombing campaigns in Yemen, motivated by the closure of the Red Sea to Israeli goods and ships by Ansar Allah (Houthis), has had no significant impact. Despite these military actions, maritime traffic in the Red Sea has not come to a complete halt, suggesting a degree of resilience in these ongoing geopolitical challenges. However, the decline in traffic underlines the impact of the conflict on one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes.