By Elijah J. Magnier The prospect of confrontation with Iran now extends beyond military and diplomatic arenas, encompassing perception, signalling, and the complex distribution of authority among allies. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts in Washington to persuade US President Donald Trump to shift from diplomacy to confrontation have implications that surpass bilateral coordination. Should […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The primary duty of a state is not rhetorical sovereignty but material protection. Before law, taxation, or diplomacy, the foundational function of political authority is to shield its population from external threat and internal predation. Where a state cannot credibly perform this function, alternative structures of protection tend to emerge, […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Against a backdrop of deep mistrust, the first preliminary US–Iran meeting in Muscat was never intended to produce an agreement. It was diagnostic. Tehran sought to determine whether Washington was genuinely prepared to test diplomacy or merely staging another phase of pressure before escalation. The outcome reflected that caution. Iran agreed […]

Par Elijah J. Magnier Pour la direction actuelle d’Israël, l’ouverture d’un processus de négociation durable entre les États-Unis et l’Iran n’est pas simplement inopportune. Elle menace de saper le principe central de sa stratégie régionale: considérer l’Iran comme une urgence permanente qui ne peut être gérée par une diplomatie classique. Dès lors que Washington et […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – For Israel’s current leadership, a sustained United States–Iran negotiation track is not merely inconvenient. It threatens to undermine the central organising premise of its regional strategy: that Iran must be treated as a permanent emergency that cannot be managed through normal diplomacy. Once Washington and Tehran enter sustained talks, even […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – There remains a narrow but real opportunity to dilute the extreme tension and accelerating military build-up across West Asia through the only viable remaining instrument: diplomacy. Military coercion has reached its structural limits. The United States cannot compel Iran to abandon uranium enrichment through force or pressure alone, because the […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The United States’ highly publicised deployment of aircraft carriers toward Iran is not a bluff, but neither is it the core of Washington’s war-fighting plan. It is a carefully staged act of strategic signalling, political choreography, and escalation management. The carriers are the visible theatre. The real strike architecture lies […]

By Elijah J. Magnier –  If and when the United States initiates a direct and prolonged war against Iran, Hezbollah will face a dilemma that goes far beyond battlefield calculations. The movement’s decision—whether to intervene militarily or to exercise restraint—will shape not only the trajectory of the regional conflict but also Lebanon’s internal political order […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – In recent weeks, Washington has significantly increased its military presence near Iran, sending substantial U.S. naval and air assets to the Persian Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean. This military build-up, together with President Donald Trump’s escalating threats and direct warnings to Tehran, signals that the US is willing to use force […]

By Elijah J. Magnier What is unfolding around Iran is no longer a speculative crisis scenario. It is a structurally plausible escalation pathway rooted in visible force postures, alliance behaviour, domestic political imperatives, and hardened narrative traps. The danger is not that war is inevitable. The danger is that the regional system has moved into […]