Iran’s pre-emptive turn and the limits of military control over the world’s most important maritime chokepoint The Strait of Hormuz is not an open ocean in which a ship can disappear across thousands of square kilometres By Elijah J. Magnier Iran has formally widened the logic of its war with the United States. On Friday, […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The United States and Iran have exchanged another wave of missiles and drones, with both sides reporting strikes against multiple targets. The renewed confrontation confirms that the war launched against Iran by Donald Trump’s administration, alongside Israel, is far from over. Six months of bombing have degraded Iran’s military capabilities, […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Bishkek carrying a message whose urgency was reinforced by events only hours earlier: after six months of war, Iran remains under attack, but it is not isolated. On Sunday, US forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The limits exposed on the battlefield have been accompanied by costs extending far beyond it. A war that failed to convert American military superiority into political control has also placed growing pressure on the country’s economy, democratic institutions, alliances and internal cohesion. This second part examines how the consequences have […]

By Elijah J. Magnier For the past six months, international attention has focused overwhelmingly on the scale of the damage inflicted on Iran by Israel and the United States. The prevailing narrative has described an Iranian state under relentless military and economic pressure, approaching exhaustion and potentially close to surrender. The destruction is undeniable. Israeli […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Iran’s response to Washington’s sanctions is not merely rhetorical defiance. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, one of the highest decision-makers in Iran, has outlined an escalation doctrine under which economic warfare can become military confrontation, while governments enforcing American measures risk becoming participants. Tehran has not announced […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would confront the United States with a problem that military power and financial sanctions cannot solve. Washington can release emergency oil, redirect Venezuelan production, import more Canadian crude and encourage higher output across the Americas. It cannot sustainably replace the volume normally […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Benjamin Netanyahu has removed much of the ambiguity surrounding Israel’s territorial intentions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, southern Lebanon and Syria. His government is no longer presenting Israeli military control merely as a temporary response to immediate threats. It is articulating a broader doctrine under which Israel reserves the […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Last February 2026, three days before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu announced the next stage of his regional strategy. Israel, he said, had inflicted severe blows on the “radical Shia axis” led by Iran but now faced an “emerging radical Sunni axis”. To confront both, […]

By Elijah J. Magnier The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement brings together three capabilities rarely combined within a single regional framework: Saudi Arabia’s financial and energy power, Turkey’s large NATO-trained military and expanding defence industry, and Pakistan’s experienced armed forces and nuclear deterrent. Although the agreement was negotiated for almost a year and builds upon longstanding […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted that the Strait of Hormuz will become irrelevant within two years. In an interview in Arizona in early August 2026, he argued that Iran’s use of the waterway as a strategic chokepoint had accelerated the construction of alternative export routes. He expected […]