By Elijah J. Magnier There is a growing possibility that President Donald Trump will attempt to end the war against Iran with a highly visible attack on the country’s remaining nuclear related sites. The objective would not necessarily be to eliminate Iran’s nuclear knowledge or future capacity, an outcome air power cannot guarantee, but to […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The United States is no longer fighting Iran merely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It is fighting to prevent Tehran from demonstrating that American dominance in the Middle East has been fundamentally weakened. Ships, oil exports and navigation fees remain the immediate instruments of confrontation, but the deeper subject […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The most significant consequence of the renewed war between the United States and Iran may ultimately prove to be political rather than military. In Iran, Israel and the United States, influential factions believe continued warfare can deliver strategic gains. The essential difference is that Iran’s most uncompromising forces do not […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The Memorandum of Understanding signed between the United States and Iran now appears effectively frozen, leaving wide scope for further military escalation. The confrontation has evolved into something less than a declared war but far beyond a limited exchange of fire. Washington appears to be combining sustained military pressure with […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The war between the United States and Iran has returned not through a formal declaration, but through the language of ships, airstrikes, congressional notifications and the contested sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz. Every night, American aircraft strike targets inside Iran. Every following round, Iran answers across the Gulf, targeting […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The dispute over Iran’s proposed service fee in the Strait of Hormuz is being presented as a provocation, a power grab or a disguised toll on international shipping. That reading is too narrow. The fee is not the real issue. It is the test. The real issue is whether the […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – More than 1,000 days after the 7 October 2023 attack and the beginning of Israel’s devastating war on Gaza, the conflict has entered one of its most deceptive phases. The word “ceasefire” exists on paper, but killing has not stopped. Israeli strikes continue almost daily, Palestinians continue to die, reconstruction […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Benjamin Netanyahu is expected at the White House encounter with Donald Trump carrying the burden of a strategic miscalculation. The Israeli prime minister did not merely ask for American support against Iran. He reportedly helped frame the war as a campaign that could deliver a rapid political result: severe military […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Donald Trump has regained enough room to manoeuvre on Iran, but room is not control. He has prevented Congress from closing the door on future military action, kept the interim US-Iran memorandum alive, and opened a narrow economic channel through temporary sanctions relief. Yet none of this settles the Iran […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – After one thousand days of war, Israel has discovered that impunity is not victory. It believed it could fight on every front, destroy without limits, kill without accountability and still impose deterrence. The Western community gave Israel that illusion on a golden plate, shielding it politically and diplomatically while it […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Iran enters the post-war negotiations with the United States convinced that the balance has shifted. Tehran does not see itself as a defeated state seeking relief, but as a power that endured a US-Israeli assault, preserved its strategic depth, and now intends to convert survival into political gains. Nowhere is […]