The dispute between Iran’s reformists and conservatives  By Elijah J. Magnier – The struggle inside Iran is often reduced to a confrontation between reformists seeking accommodation with the West and conservatives determined to perpetuate conflict. The reality is more complex. Both currents reject surrender, defend Iran’s sovereignty and regard the United States as fundamentally hostile. […]

London carefully separated the settlements from Israel. The Netanyahu government’s response erased that distinction. By Elijah J. Magnier – Britain imposed measures targeting illegal Israeli settlements while insisting that it was not sanctioning Israel. The Netanyahu government responded as though all of Israel had been attacked. It ordered the closure of the British consulate in […]

Beijing supports Tehran when the price is manageable, but the threat of US sanctions exposes the limits of their unequal partnership By Elijah J. Magnier – US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has placed China at the centre of Washington’s expanding economic campaign against Iran. Referring on 6 September to Iranian crude reportedly sent towards China, […]

Iran’s pre-emptive turn and the limits of military control over the world’s most important maritime chokepoint The Strait of Hormuz is not an open ocean in which a ship can disappear across thousands of square kilometres By Elijah J. Magnier Iran has formally widened the logic of its war with the United States. On Friday, […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The United States and Iran have exchanged another wave of missiles and drones, with both sides reporting strikes against multiple targets. The renewed confrontation confirms that the war launched against Iran by Donald Trump’s administration, alongside Israel, is far from over. Six months of bombing have degraded Iran’s military capabilities, […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Bishkek carrying a message whose urgency was reinforced by events only hours earlier: after six months of war, Iran remains under attack, but it is not isolated. On Sunday, US forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The limits exposed on the battlefield have been accompanied by costs extending far beyond it. A war that failed to convert American military superiority into political control has also placed growing pressure on the country’s economy, democratic institutions, alliances and internal cohesion. This second part examines how the consequences have […]

By Elijah J. Magnier For the past six months, international attention has focused overwhelmingly on the scale of the damage inflicted on Iran by Israel and the United States. The prevailing narrative has described an Iranian state under relentless military and economic pressure, approaching exhaustion and potentially close to surrender. The destruction is undeniable. Israeli […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Iran’s response to Washington’s sanctions is not merely rhetorical defiance. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, one of the highest decision-makers in Iran, has outlined an escalation doctrine under which economic warfare can become military confrontation, while governments enforcing American measures risk becoming participants. Tehran has not announced […]