By Elijah J. Magnier Israel is preparing military options for possible independent action against Iran if the United States ends its campaign, reaches an accommodation with Tehran or refuses to support another Israeli escalation. Senior Israeli officials have acknowledged these preparations as Washington searches for a diplomatic exit from the conflict that began in late […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Israel has conducted prolonged military operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran without experiencing the economic collapse commonly associated with an extended war on several fronts. The shekel has strengthened rather than disintegrated, unemployment has remained comparatively low, foreign investment has continued and the technology, defence and energy sectors have generated exceptional […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – One year after Israel and the United States claimed to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear programme, the nuclear dossier has neither been resolved nor eliminated. It has instead been overtaken by a more immediate crisis. The Strait of Hormuz now dominates negotiations because Iran has transformed the consequences of the war […]

By Elijah J. Magnier The American confrontation with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz may have consequences extending far beyond the Gulf. Donald Trump appears to possess neither a coherent war strategy nor a credible route out of the conflict. Having failed to compel Iran to capitulate or restore navigation through Hormuz on American terms, […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Benjamin Netanyahu travelled to Washington expecting to revive the image that has sustained much of his political career: that no Israeli leader understands the United States better than he does, and that no American president, Republican or Democrat, can resist his pressure. Instead, he received less than ninety minutes behind […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can already present himself as a winner in the war against Iran, although he has not achieved the collapse of the Iranian political system. His success lies elsewhere. He persuaded President Donald Trump that a short military campaign could break Tehran, accelerate internal disintegration and produce […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – President Donald Trump is caught in a strategic trap of his own making. Bombing Iran every night, or expanding the campaign to additional targets, has neither persuaded Tehran to concede nor deterred it from enforcing its own rules governing navigation and security in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, every threat […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The United States House of Representatives has passed the $1.1 trillion National Defense Authorization Act by 216 votes to 212, advancing legislation that could transform Israel’s military future. The most consequential provisions do more than facilitate weapons deliveries. They seek to institutionalise technological, industrial and logistical cooperation between Israel and […]

By Elijah J. Magnier There is a growing possibility that President Donald Trump will attempt to end the war against Iran with a highly visible attack on the country’s remaining nuclear related sites. The objective would not necessarily be to eliminate Iran’s nuclear knowledge or future capacity, an outcome air power cannot guarantee, but to […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The United States is no longer fighting Iran merely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It is fighting to prevent Tehran from demonstrating that American dominance in the Middle East has been fundamentally weakened. Ships, oil exports and navigation fees remain the immediate instruments of confrontation, but the deeper subject […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The most significant consequence of the renewed war between the United States and Iran may ultimately prove to be political rather than military. In Iran, Israel and the United States, influential factions believe continued warfare can deliver strategic gains. The essential difference is that Iran’s most uncompromising forces do not […]