By Elijah J. Magnier Donald Trump entrusted negotiations over Iran and Gaza to Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, assuming trusted dealmakers could deliver where conventional diplomacy had struggled. Assess their record against the requirements of the disputes they were assigned: understanding the counterpart, accurately interpreting proposals, securing reciprocal commitments, and ensuring agreements change conditions on […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Washington’s campaign against the International Criminal Court has crossed a decisive threshold. Sanctioning individual judges and prosecutors was already an attempt to make the pursuit of accountability personally costly. Sanctioning the institution itself seeks to compromise the machinery through which accountability becomes possible. The immediate beneficiaries include Israeli officials facing arrest […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Donald Trump’s responsibility for the confrontation with Iran begins before the first strike: with the objectives he selects, the intelligence he discounts, and the people he appoints to assess whether diplomacy has reached its limits. But presidential responsibility does not remove the obligation to scrutinise the military advice supporting his decisions. […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has opened a relationship whose potential military value extends across the Gulf of Aden and into the struggle over the Red Sea. Access to Berbera could bring Israeli surveillance, F-35 and F-15 aircraft support and naval logistics closer to Yemen, drawing on infrastructure developed through Emirati […]

By Elijah J. Magnier The G7 agreed on 2 October to release 100 million barrels over four months through the International Energy Agency, with an immediate start and substantial diesel deliveries within 20 days. This is a collective undertaking, not a French release of 100 million barrels of diesel. It implements outstanding commitments under the […]

Par Elijah J. Magnier Les élections israéliennes du 27 octobre pourraient se jouer sur une question que ni le Premier ministre Benjamin Netanyahu ni ses principaux rivaux ne peuvent trancher entre eux : les Palestiniens détenant la citoyenneté israélienne seront-ils autorisés à exercer pleinement leur poids politique, et leurs représentants élus seront-ils acceptés comme partenaires […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Israel’s election on 27 October may turn on a question neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his principal rivals can settle among themselves: will Palestinians holding Israeli citizenship be permitted to exercise their full political weight, and will their elected representatives be accepted as partners in forming a government? On 23 […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Israel’s present leadership appears to have established a remarkable moral hierarchy. A European party descended from former Nazis can be welcomed into political dialogue if it supports Israel, opposes Muslim immigration and promises to move its country’s embassy to Jerusalem. Meanwhile, governments, international organisations and Jewish critics who challenge Israeli […]

By Elijah J. Magnier China possesses more influence over Russia than any other major power still maintaining a close relationship with Moscow. It is Russia’s largest energy customer, an indispensable supplier of manufactured and dual-use goods, a critical diplomatic partner and an increasingly important channel to the non-Western financial system. Chinese President Xi Jinping can […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has forced Iran to redraw its commercial map. Instead of depending overwhelmingly on its southern ports, Tehran is redirecting imports and exports across its 5,894 kilometres of land borders with seven countries, while expanding shipping through the Caspian Sea. Traffic […]