Who holds the Initiative, and who has the Power to mobilise the Street in Iraq?

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai There is little doubt that Sayyed Moqtada al-Sadr controls the streets in Iraq and can make peaceful protests violent when he chooses. Notwithstanding the presence of several smaller players and those genuinely asking for serious reforms, Sayyed Moqtada can move the street in the direction he wants. However, the strategic objectives […]

Why Abdel Mahdi has to go: Many mistakes by the US, Iran and the Marjaiya.

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai The democratically elected Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi has fallen. 241 members of parliament voted for his resignation, in accordance with the request of the Marjaiya in Najaf, the Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Sistani: Abdel Mahdi must end his term much earlier than planned in response to his mismanagement of […]

The explosion in Lebanon has been delayed: until when?

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai Europe is concerned about the Lebanese political crisis and its potential spillover consequences in case of a civil confrontation. Even if the European states do not have differing strategic objectives in Lebanon from the US, a civil war will affect Europe directly, as refugees will be flocking from the neighbouring continent. Reaching […]

The US and Iran in Iraq: Protestors take over the streets, demanding government reforms “or else”…

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai During the last decade, whenever an Iraqi government was about to be formed or the election of a Speaker, a President and a Prime Minister is underway, US and Iranian envoys become very active, with the goal of influencing the elections and the formation of political coalitions and bringing “friendly” […]

The worst-case scenario in Lebanon: Civil War

Beirut, Lebanon, By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai In Lebanon, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has warned that the ongoing anti-government protests might lead to “chaos, collapse and civil war ”. What is the scenario for a civil war? Is it a realistic possibility? The Lebanese people think the current upheaval was triggered by monthly taxes […]

Lebanon and Iraq protestors: The US, Israel and Saudi Arabia are fed up with Iran 4/4

Beirut By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai When the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says “The Iraqi and Lebanese people want their country back. They are discovering that the Iranian regime’s top export is corruption”, he is directly accusing the respective governments in Iraq and Lebanon of being pro-Iranian and therefore supporting the revolution. The US involvement in […]

Lebanon and Iraq protestors: The US, Israel and Saudi Arabia are fed up with Iran 3/4

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai For the first time since Lebanese independence in 1945, protestors in Lebanon have hit the streets to protest against the corruption of all political leaders currently in power. However, they were not alone: many of the over one and a half million Syrian refugees and seven hundred thousand Palestinian refugees in […]

Lebanon and Iraq protestors: The US, Israel and Saudi Arabia are fed up with Iran 2/4

Beirut by Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai In 1975, Lebanon went through 15 years of violent and destructive civil war. The circumstances before the beginning of the war were aimed at destroying and removing the Palestinian Liberation organisation (PLO) led by Yasser Arafat. Palestinians were drawn into a civil war in Lebanon, paving the way for an […]

Lebanon and Iraq protestors: The US, Israel and Saudi Arabia are fed up with Iran 1/4

Beirut, Lebanon, By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai The United States of America, Israel and Saudi Arabia are fed up with Iran and its allies in the Middle East. But despite waging war against Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon, by inviting the Iraqi government to dilute al-Hashd al-Shaabi, by attempting to submit Gaza and to curb […]

Lebanon: this Week won’t be the same as last week for Protestors

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai After less than two weeks of generalized, impulsive and unorganised protests on the streets of Lebanon, a huge amount of money has been invested – by undeclared donors – in recent days to provide protestors with food, drinks and necessities so that they will stay in the street until “the […]

Putin-Erdogan meeting aims to organise differences and shorten the gap between allies

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai In the first week of the month of October the US informed Turkey and Russia of its intention to withdraw from north-east Syria (NES). Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan pulled out a plan prepared over a year ago to move forces into NES and take control of cities like Manbij, […]

Winners and Losers in the Turkish attack on the Kurds in Syria (part 3 of 3)

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai The United States of America emerged victorious from the Second World War, and came out stronger than any other country in the world. The allies- notably the Soviet Union- won the war but emerged much weaker. They needed to reconstruct their countries and rebuild their economies, with the US demanding […]

Winners and Losers in the Turkish attack on Kurds in Syria? Part 2 of 3

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai Turkish forces invaded north-east Syria (NES) only when it had coordinated with the US to define the red line of the invasion. Moreover, both superpowers, the US and Russia, protected Turkey by blocking an EU-drafted UN resolution to halt the Turkish advance. Turkey refused to allow the US to arm, train […]

Winners and Losers in the Turkish attack on Kurds in Syria (part 1of 3)

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai President Donald Trump has given the orders to begin a “deliberate withdrawal” of his troops and end the occupation of north-east Syria (NES). This is accelerating the race between the Turkish and the Syrian forces to control NES. Turkey is in a rush to establish its 30-35km wide safe zone […]

One Rocket provoked the US Withdrawal: details of the Kurdish-Russian-Syrian Deal

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai Last Friday a 155 mm artillery shell landed 300 metres from a US command post near the Syrian bordering city of Ayn al-Arab (known by the Syrian Kurds as “Kobane”) during an ongoing operation carried out by Turkey – a NATO and a US ally. This operation aimed to dislodge, […]

The Turkish attack on Rojava: Iran is no longer the US target in Syria

https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/ocha_syria_flash_update_2_nes_and_humanitarian_impact_11_october_2019.pdf By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai Although the Turkish attack against the Syrian Kurds in North-East Syria (NES)is limited to a specific bordering buffer zone not larger than 32 kilometres, it will achieve a multiple layers of objectives if the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan respects the acknowledgement he has received from Russia and the […]

US forces will not likely withdraw from Syria this year

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai Notwithstanding President Donald Trump’s announcement of the deal with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tactically withdraw US forces from specific locations in occupied north-east Syria- and in consequence to leave the Syrian Kurds to their fate- the departure of US forces from Syria is highly implausible. These US forces […]

The US-Iran silent war is transformed into an “Iraq uprising”

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai By Elijah J. Magnier: The last four days have shown that the ongoing US-Iran war is acutely affecting the whole region. This is now evident in Iraq where more than 105 people have been killed and thousands wounded in the course of demonstrations that engulfed the capital Baghdad and southern […]

Can the US starve Hezbollah of funds?

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai Over the years, researchers have copied and parroted inaccurate declassified US intelligence reports on Hezbollah’s sources of income around the world. These documents claim Hezbollah lives off selling smuggled cigarettes and illegally copied CDs or on income generated by selling drugs in Latin America and around the world. The US […]

The US calls for peace and apologises for its past

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai “As President of the United States of America, I apologise for the suffering we have caused the world for decades, and particularly in the Middle East. I am sorry for causing so much pain to the Iranian population by inflicting harsh and aggressive sanctions with the aim of curbing their sovereignty […]

The US wants Iran to become a “toothless shark”: its allies and missile programme to be swept off the table

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai There will be no deal between Iran and the US as long as President Donald Trump is unwilling to lift his aggressive sanctions against the “Islamic Republic”. Washington and Riyadh’s top leaders have asked Pakistan and Iraq to mediate with the Tehran leadership to ease tensions and stop the attacks that are jeopardising the turbulent peace in […]

What Iran and the US offer their allies: Tehran’s multiple messages

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai The alternately hot and cold tension between the US and Iran is evolving on the Middle Eastern stage where Tehran is hitting its enemies (on its own and with the help of its allies) without causing the death of a single US person so far. It is targeting strategic objectives in […]

Why didn’t Iraq retaliate against Israel? Part 2

Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai The US and Israel are manoeuvring between the internal Iraqi differences in order to hit Hashd al-Shaabi, the “Popular Mobilisation Forces” (PMF). These forces have gathered significant domestic support and created many enemies among the Iraqis. The reason for this antipathy is the Iranian fingerprint within the PMF. Yet Iran is supposed […]

Why didn’t Iraq retaliate against Israel? Part 1/2

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai Iraq and Syria have decided to re-open the border-crossing between the two countries at albu Kamal – al Qaem, a vital move for the economic interests of both countries, with considerable benefits for the “Axis of the Resistance” (Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon). Twenty-four hours before the opening was […]

Moqtada al-Sadr and Iran: a long love-hate relationship

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai The leader of the Iranian revolution Sayyed Ali Khamenei received on the 10thof Moharram, the Iraqi leader Sayyed Moqtada al-Sadr, brought to him by Brigadier General Qassem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps – Quds Brigade (IRGC-QB) and in presence of the IRGC commander Hossein Salame. The visit- and […]

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