By Elijah J. Magnier Iran’s decision to lift its self-imposed restrictions on ballistic missile ranges signals a significant reassessment of its deterrence doctrine following the American-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic. Tehran is no longer presenting its missile capabilities as geographically confined to Israel and American military installations across the Middle East. The change suggests […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The United States is spending approximately $32.5 million every day maintaining a naval blockade of Iran, equivalent to nearly $1 billion a month. Yet Washington is simultaneously offering a reward of up to $20 million, accompanied by the possibility of relocation, to anyone who can provide information about Iran’s nuclear […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Benjamin Netanyahu has not conceded the struggle to remain in power. More than a million voters backed Likud, which remains the largest party with 27 seats. His camp lacks a parliamentary majority, but his opponents have yet to agree on a government. His survival now depends on keeping them divided and […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Regardless of the ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the two countries and the shuttle of envoys between Tehran and Doha, Iran has delivered a warning to the United States and Israel that challenges their ability to control another military confrontation. Tehran has declared that retaliation will not be geographically restricted and that those […]

By Elijah J. Magnier The voting has ended, and the battle has begun. Israel’s parliamentary elections have delivered neither victory nor defeat to the two principal contenders. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has succeeded in remaining politically relevant, preserving his leadership of the largest party and keeping alive his ambition to form another government. Yet he […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Can Iran, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan overcome their rivalries, reduce Israel’s strategic advantage and begin building a regional security architecture of their own? Their meeting in Tehran on 26 October raises a possibility extending beyond the immediate objective of preventing another confrontation between Iran, the United States and Israel: regional […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Washington’s preparations for renewed attacks on Iran should not be assessed solely through the vulnerability of American bases and Gulf infrastructure. Iranian retaliation would include Israel from the outset, even if Israeli aircraft did or did not participate in the opening strikes. That would immediately widen the war. Tehran would not […]

By Elijah J. Magnier The question of another war against Iran is returning to the centre of US–Israeli relations. This time, however, the potential consequences extend beyond military installations, oil exports and maritime navigation. Iranian warnings about submarine internet cables suggest that renewed fighting could threaten the communications infrastructure supporting the Gulf’s financial services, international […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Donald Trump entrusted negotiations over Iran and Gaza to Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, assuming trusted dealmakers could deliver where conventional diplomacy had struggled. Assess their record against the requirements of the disputes they were assigned: understanding the counterpart, accurately interpreting proposals, securing reciprocal commitments, and ensuring agreements change conditions on […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Washington’s campaign against the International Criminal Court has crossed a decisive threshold. Sanctioning individual judges and prosecutors was already an attempt to make the pursuit of accountability personally costly. Sanctioning the institution itself seeks to compromise the machinery through which accountability becomes possible. The immediate beneficiaries include Israeli officials facing arrest […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Donald Trump’s responsibility for the confrontation with Iran begins before the first strike: with the objectives he selects, the intelligence he discounts, and the people he appoints to assess whether diplomacy has reached its limits. But presidential responsibility does not remove the obligation to scrutinise the military advice supporting his decisions. […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has opened a relationship whose potential military value extends across the Gulf of Aden and into the struggle over the Red Sea. Access to Berbera could bring Israeli surveillance, F-35 and F-15 aircraft support and naval logistics closer to Yemen, drawing on infrastructure developed through Emirati […]

By Elijah J. Magnier The G7 agreed on 2 October to release 100 million barrels over four months through the International Energy Agency, with an immediate start and substantial diesel deliveries within 20 days. This is a collective undertaking, not a French release of 100 million barrels of diesel. It implements outstanding commitments under the […]

Par Elijah J. Magnier Les élections israéliennes du 27 octobre pourraient se jouer sur une question que ni le Premier ministre Benjamin Netanyahu ni ses principaux rivaux ne peuvent trancher entre eux : les Palestiniens détenant la citoyenneté israélienne seront-ils autorisés à exercer pleinement leur poids politique, et leurs représentants élus seront-ils acceptés comme partenaires […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Israel’s election on 27 October may turn on a question neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his principal rivals can settle among themselves: will Palestinians holding Israeli citizenship be permitted to exercise their full political weight, and will their elected representatives be accepted as partners in forming a government? On 23 […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Israel’s present leadership appears to have established a remarkable moral hierarchy. A European party descended from former Nazis can be welcomed into political dialogue if it supports Israel, opposes Muslim immigration and promises to move its country’s embassy to Jerusalem. Meanwhile, governments, international organisations and Jewish critics who challenge Israeli […]

By Elijah J. Magnier China possesses more influence over Russia than any other major power still maintaining a close relationship with Moscow. It is Russia’s largest energy customer, an indispensable supplier of manufactured and dual-use goods, a critical diplomatic partner and an increasingly important channel to the non-Western financial system. Chinese President Xi Jinping can […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has forced Iran to redraw its commercial map. Instead of depending overwhelmingly on its southern ports, Tehran is redirecting imports and exports across its 5,894 kilometres of land borders with seven countries, while expanding shipping through the Caspian Sea. Traffic […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Whenever the US president is questioned about the war against Iran—its mounting cost, its objectives or his exit strategy—he falls back on the same automatic refrain, even when it does not answer the question: the United States will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. Trump continues to invoke the […]

By Elijah J. Magnier –  Modern American warfare was built on a decisive privilege: the United States could normally see its enemies before they saw it, strike from beyond their reach and sustain military operations from bases and supply lines assumed to be relatively secure. Its aircraft dominated the sky, its satellites exposed hostile movements […]

By Elijah J. Magnier In recent days, Ansar Allah has seized approximately 5,400 square kilometres of territory—a figure acknowledged by commanders of the retreating opposing forces—and continues to advance through the Kahbub mountains on Bab el-Mandeb where the situation remains fluid. Its adversaries remain on the defensive despite sustained Saudi air support and repeated air […]

The dispute between Iran’s reformists and conservatives  By Elijah J. Magnier – The struggle inside Iran is often reduced to a confrontation between reformists seeking accommodation with the West and conservatives determined to perpetuate conflict. The reality is more complex. Both currents reject surrender, defend Iran’s sovereignty and regard the United States as fundamentally hostile. […]