By Elijah J. Magnier China possesses more influence over Russia than any other major power still maintaining a close relationship with Moscow. It is Russia’s largest energy customer, an indispensable supplier of manufactured and dual-use goods, a critical diplomatic partner and an increasingly important channel to the non-Western financial system. Chinese President Xi Jinping can […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has forced Iran to redraw its commercial map. Instead of depending overwhelmingly on its southern ports, Tehran is redirecting imports and exports across its 5,894 kilometres of land borders with seven countries, while expanding shipping through the Caspian Sea. Traffic […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Whenever the US president is questioned about the war against Iran—its mounting cost, its objectives or his exit strategy—he falls back on the same automatic refrain, even when it does not answer the question: the United States will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. Trump continues to invoke the […]

By Elijah J. Magnier –  Modern American warfare was built on a decisive privilege: the United States could normally see its enemies before they saw it, strike from beyond their reach and sustain military operations from bases and supply lines assumed to be relatively secure. Its aircraft dominated the sky, its satellites exposed hostile movements […]

By Elijah J. Magnier In recent days, Ansar Allah has seized approximately 5,400 square kilometres of territory—a figure acknowledged by commanders of the retreating opposing forces—and continues to advance through the Kahbub mountains on Bab el-Mandeb where the situation remains fluid. Its adversaries remain on the defensive despite sustained Saudi air support and repeated air […]

The dispute between Iran’s reformists and conservatives  By Elijah J. Magnier – The struggle inside Iran is often reduced to a confrontation between reformists seeking accommodation with the West and conservatives determined to perpetuate conflict. The reality is more complex. Both currents reject surrender, defend Iran’s sovereignty and regard the United States as fundamentally hostile. […]

London carefully separated the settlements from Israel. The Netanyahu government’s response erased that distinction. By Elijah J. Magnier – Britain imposed measures targeting illegal Israeli settlements while insisting that it was not sanctioning Israel. The Netanyahu government responded as though all of Israel had been attacked. It ordered the closure of the British consulate in […]

Beijing supports Tehran when the price is manageable, but the threat of US sanctions exposes the limits of their unequal partnership By Elijah J. Magnier – US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has placed China at the centre of Washington’s expanding economic campaign against Iran. Referring on 6 September to Iranian crude reportedly sent towards China, […]

Iran’s pre-emptive turn and the limits of military control over the world’s most important maritime chokepoint The Strait of Hormuz is not an open ocean in which a ship can disappear across thousands of square kilometres By Elijah J. Magnier Iran has formally widened the logic of its war with the United States. On Friday, […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The United States and Iran have exchanged another wave of missiles and drones, with both sides reporting strikes against multiple targets. The renewed confrontation confirms that the war launched against Iran by Donald Trump’s administration, alongside Israel, is far from over. Six months of bombing have degraded Iran’s military capabilities, […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Bishkek carrying a message whose urgency was reinforced by events only hours earlier: after six months of war, Iran remains under attack, but it is not isolated. On Sunday, US forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – The limits exposed on the battlefield have been accompanied by costs extending far beyond it. A war that failed to convert American military superiority into political control has also placed growing pressure on the country’s economy, democratic institutions, alliances and internal cohesion. This second part examines how the consequences have […]

By Elijah J. Magnier For the past six months, international attention has focused overwhelmingly on the scale of the damage inflicted on Iran by Israel and the United States. The prevailing narrative has described an Iranian state under relentless military and economic pressure, approaching exhaustion and potentially close to surrender. The destruction is undeniable. Israeli […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Iran’s response to Washington’s sanctions is not merely rhetorical defiance. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, one of the highest decision-makers in Iran, has outlined an escalation doctrine under which economic warfare can become military confrontation, while governments enforcing American measures risk becoming participants. Tehran has not announced […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would confront the United States with a problem that military power and financial sanctions cannot solve. Washington can release emergency oil, redirect Venezuelan production, import more Canadian crude and encourage higher output across the Americas. It cannot sustainably replace the volume normally […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Benjamin Netanyahu has removed much of the ambiguity surrounding Israel’s territorial intentions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, southern Lebanon and Syria. His government is no longer presenting Israeli military control merely as a temporary response to immediate threats. It is articulating a broader doctrine under which Israel reserves the […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – Last February 2026, three days before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu announced the next stage of his regional strategy. Israel, he said, had inflicted severe blows on the “radical Shia axis” led by Iran but now faced an “emerging radical Sunni axis”. To confront both, […]

By Elijah J. Magnier The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement brings together three capabilities rarely combined within a single regional framework: Saudi Arabia’s financial and energy power, Turkey’s large NATO-trained military and expanding defence industry, and Pakistan’s experienced armed forces and nuclear deterrent. Although the agreement was negotiated for almost a year and builds upon longstanding […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted that the Strait of Hormuz will become irrelevant within two years. In an interview in Arizona in early August 2026, he argued that Iran’s use of the waterway as a strategic chokepoint had accelerated the construction of alternative export routes. He expected […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Israel is preparing military options for possible independent action against Iran if the United States ends its campaign, reaches an accommodation with Tehran or refuses to support another Israeli escalation. Senior Israeli officials have acknowledged these preparations as Washington searches for a diplomatic exit from the conflict that began in late […]

By Elijah J. Magnier Israel has conducted prolonged military operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran without experiencing the economic collapse commonly associated with an extended war on several fronts. The shekel has strengthened rather than disintegrated, unemployment has remained comparatively low, foreign investment has continued and the technology, defence and energy sectors have generated exceptional […]

By Elijah J. Magnier – One year after Israel and the United States claimed to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear programme, the nuclear dossier has neither been resolved nor eliminated. It has instead been overtaken by a more immediate crisis. The Strait of Hormuz now dominates negotiations because Iran has transformed the consequences of the war […]