Beyond the Nuclear Threat: Israel’s Focus on Iran’s Missile Depots and Assassinations

By Elijah J. Magnier:

Israel has signalled its intent to launch a significant strike in response to Iran’s retaliation to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran by targeting its advancing nuclear capabilities. However, despite this assertive stance, the complexities and potential consequences of a full-scale military assault on Iran’s nuclear and the unexpected reaction by altering its nuclear doctrine render such an operation extremely risky and uncertain. Iran’s critical atomic and missile facilities are spread across its vast territory of 1.648 million square kilometres, many of them intensely fortified and protected by sophisticated air defence systems. Even for Israel’s competent military, the scale and complexity of the task make success far from guaranteed.

Furthermore, targeting Iran’s economic or oil infrastructure could have serious repercussions. Any such action would invite significant retaliation from Iran, which could disproportionately affect Israel due to the small size (22,147 square kilometres) it is occupying and its vulnerability to missile strikes. In light of these risks, Israel may find a more practical strategy in focusing on Iran’s missile depots and carrying out targeted assassinations of key figures within Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. While potentially effective, this approach would likely trigger a more severe Iranian retaliation, though it might avoid the immediate escalation of a full-scale conflict. Furthermore, Iran could interpret such a strike as a sign that its missile deterrence is insufficient and may accelerate its pursuit of a nuclear weapon, thus increasing the risk of a future nuclear-armed Iran. This would be a significant setback for both Israeli and international efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation in the region.

Israel’s actions would offer Iran an opportunity to bolster its support for Lebanon, not only by supplying military hardware, missiles, and high-ranking advisors but also by increasing pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This could exacerbate insecurity on Israel’s domestic front, adding another layer of complexity to the ongoing tensions between the two belligerents.