Pressure without power: Why the US can no longer dictate terms to Iran

By Elijah J. Magnier –

As American and Iranian negotiators wrap up nuclear talks in Oman, a striking paradox underlies the region’s strategic landscape: Washington continues to posture as the enforcer of red lines it can no longer hold. While the US insists it will never allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon or Ansar Allah to disrupt shipping lanes in the Red Sea, reality tells a different story. Washington does not shape outcomes – it struggles to manage those already imposed by others.

For more than two decades, the US has declared that it would “never allow” Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Yet Iran has repeatedly stated that weaponisation is not part of its strategic doctrine. It remains a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and American intelligence agencies have consistently found no conclusive evidence of a weapons programme. The perceived threat has largely served as a convenient political tool – domestically and in managing relations with Israel.

After the Oman talks, it is not Iran that looks isolated, but Washington. The Trump administration’s initial “maximum pressure” campaign failed, instead strengthening Iran’s strategic and economic ties with China, Russia and regional actors. Now, in his second term, President Trump faces a very different geopolitical map: Iran’s programme has advanced, but his restraint has held – so far.

The Red Sea tells a similar story of American overreach. Since October 2023, Yemen’s Ansar Allah has selectively targeted Israeli-linked shipping in protest at the war in Gaza,