Why Iran still won’t talk to Trump directly: Trust is off the table. 

By Elijah J. Magnier – 

No one should expect a US-Iran nuclear deal anytime soon – if ever. History provides useful parallels. The 1994 Agreed Framework between the US and North Korea collapsed after a change in US leadership and mutual mistrust, ultimately leading Pyongyang to restart its weapons programme. Similarly, the 2003 disarmament agreement with Libya led to regime change and chaos, reinforcing Tehran’s fears that disarmament could invite future intervention. These past episodes serve as cautionary tales and underscore why Iran demands ironclad guarantees before entering into any new deal.

It took years of painstaking diplomacy to reach the 2015 agreement under Barack Obama, and just one day for Donald Trump to tear it up after taking office in 2018. The road to any future deal is littered with unresolved complexities, mistrust and a lack of guarantees. Even amid threats of war and occasional olive branches, a deal remains a long way off.

The US knows exactly where Iran’s nuclear facilities, military bases and major cities are located. Likewise, Iran knows the locations of US military bases throughout the Middle East, as well as Israeli military installations and nuclear facilities. Both sides understand the consequences of a full-scale confrontation. War would risk devastating military losses, massive civilian casualties, enormous worldwide economic sanctions and uncontrollable regional escalation. The result is a tense equilibrium, where rhetoric may escalate, but neither side really wants to be the one to ignite a catastrophic conflict.