Hezbollah’s Post-Deterrence Strategy: Why Assassinations Will Not Trigger a Missile War with Israel

By Elijah J. Magnier

Hezbollah has a greater understanding of the nature of its confrontation with Israel: the era of large-scale missile exchanges is considered useless and effectively over unless the situation reaches a non-return option. Even the eventual assassination of its newly appointed Secretary General (Sheikh Naeim Qassem) or any senior decision-makers would not automatically push the organisation into a retaliatory missile campaign. Hezbollah’s leadership has determined that long-range and precision missiles will only be used in extremist if Israel deliberately targets mass civilians. This shift represents a major doctrinal transformation. The organisation’s patience is now explicitly tied to the protection of civilian life and the avoidance of a Gaza-style destruction scenario in Lebanon. Israel understands this red line clearly. It also knows that Hezbollah has now prioritised building a defensive strategy designed to clash with any Israeli ground forces attempting to seize or occupy villages in south Lebanon, rather than engaging in open missile warfare.