The Battle for South Lebanon: Israel’s push to encircle Hezbollah as it builds up its leadership and missile capabilities

By Elijah J Magnier:

Israel’s ongoing military campaign against Hezbollah represents a significant escalation in the long-running conflict. A critical focus of this campaign has been the systematic destruction of a substantial portion of Hezbollah’s strategic missile arsenal, specifically targeting long-range precision missiles stored in areas such as the Bekaa Valley. According to the Israeli army, the air strikes have reportedly destroyed ‘tens of thousands of precision-guided munitions that Hezbollah has amassed over the years’. These weapons, including surface-to-surface and cruise missiles, formed the backbone of Hezbollah’s deterrence strategy against Israel and posed a direct threat to Israeli cities and military infrastructure.

Israel’s Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, has vocally rejected any ceasefire with Lebanon until Hezbollah is thoroughly defeated. This position underscores Israel’s strategic assessment that “Hezbollah’s missile deterrent has been significantly weakened and a ceasefire at this time could allow the militant group to regroup and replenish its capabilities”. The destruction of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal – if the information is accurate – presents a unique opportunity for Israel to strike a decisive blow while Hezbollah remains vulnerable. However, this opportunity may be fleeting, as Hezbollah’s special forces are still an intact body clashing with the Israeli invaders in southern Lebanon, and Iran, Hezbollah’s organic ally, has historically supplied the group with advanced weapons. In the absence of a total Israeli military victory, Hezbollah could eventually regain much of its deterrent capability by replenishing and reproducing more missiles at home and in Syria, making Israel’s current offensive even more costly on Israel.

Bombing of Tel Aviv and Haifa and a new ROE

On the night of 7 October, Hezbollah fired five Fadi-1 medium-range missiles at the city of Haifa, sending several strategic messages. Twenty-four hours later, Hezbollah fired five missiles on Tel Aviv in a surprising move following the Israeli aerial destruction of a large part of Hezbollah’s arsenal. Concerning Haifa, Hezbollah’s special forces unit, Ridwan, was initially tasked with targeting Israeli forces along the border without escalating to attacks on major cities such as Haifa or Tel Aviv. However, the fact that they fired missiles at Haifa indicates a change in strategy. It suggests that they have received new orders to extend their attacks to the city’s port, which houses crucial assets such as the Israeli navy, chemical plants and oil storage facilities. The attack on Tel Aviv was launched from the Bekaa Valley, indicating that Hezbollah’s capability has not been totally destroyed but damaged.