Ukraine: The bargaining chip in a US-Russia peace deal, with Europe left in the crossfire 

By Elijah J. Magnier – 

After three years of destruction, sanctions and economic turmoil, the war in Ukraine appears to be drawing to a close. What began as a conflict framed by lofty ideals – the defence of democracy, sovereignty and human rights – has now evolved into a far more complex geopolitical entanglement. As European nations grapple with the reality of disengagement, their leaders face an inevitable reckoning: how to justify both their initial intervention and their eventual withdrawal.

The economic consequences of the war have been devastating for Europe, triggering an energy crisis, record-high inflation and growing public frustration at the financial burden of supporting Ukraine. The diplomatic landscape is now shifting, forcing Western leaders to reassess not only their strategic objectives but also the integrity of the values they claim to uphold.

But some European voices are warning that peace could be even more dangerous than war. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen expressed scepticism about a possible settlement, arguing that a premature solution could leave Ukraine vulnerable. In a stark statement on 24 February 2025, Frederiksen warned: “We run the risk that peace in Ukraine could actually be more dangerous than the war that is currently taking place.” Her concerns highlight a growing fear among European policymakers that any deal brokered in the current circumstances could embolden Russia and undermine NATO’s strategic interests.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, a dramatic shift in US policy is underway. In a speech to Congress on 4 March 2025, President Donald Trump revealed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had sent him a message indicating his willingness to negotiate peace – on the condition that a rare minerals agreement be reached with the United States. Trump’s response was unequivocal: “It’s time to end this war.”