Can China End the Ukraine War—or Does Beijing Prefer It to Continue More Slowly?

By Elijah J. Magnier

China possesses more influence over Russia than any other major power still maintaining a close relationship with Moscow. It is Russia’s largest energy customer, an indispensable supplier of manufactured and dual-use goods, a critical diplomatic partner and an increasingly important channel to the non-Western financial system. Chinese President Xi Jinping can consequently speak to Vladimir Putin with an authority unavailable to European leaders.

This does not mean that Beijing can order Moscow to end the war. Nor does it make China a neutral mediator standing at equal distance from Russia and Ukraine. China has not joined Western sanctions, has given Russia diplomatic cover and has provided the economic relationship that helped Moscow withstand its separation from European markets. Beijing repeatedly calls for negotiations and opposes nuclear escalation, but it has avoided exerting the level of pressure that could place Russia in danger of strategic defeat.

China can play a role in ending the war—but only if the emerging settlement protects its own interests and takes onboard Russia’s national security. Until then, Beijing may consider a slower and contained conflict preferable both to Russia’s defeat and to an uncontrolled Russian victory.