The Gaza War Ended, Only to Be Replaced by Sporadic Combat Operations

Written by Elijah J. Magnier

The Palestinian resistance has shelled the Karm Abu Salem (Kerem Shalom) crossing near Rafah, where the Israeli forces have massed large numbers of troops in preparation for an incursion into the last town bordering Egypt. The Israeli forces can only proceed with Egypt’s permission so as not to jeopardise the 1979 peace agreement. Even if Israel secures such an agreement, it will be a limited battle, less intense than the campaigns in northern and southern Gaza, and only after the evacuation of over 1.5 million Palestinian civilians unless it aims to position itself between Egypt and Gaza to close the Rafah crossing permanently. Nevertheless, this will be a battle, not a full-scale war, and the outcome is unlikely to secure the release of Israeli prisoners or lead to the defeat of Hamas. Israeli Army chief of staff Herzi Halevy admitted that after seven months of destruction and military operations in Gaza, ‘Israel has not completed the mission’. The former head of military intelligence, Major Amos Yadlin, responded: “The war is over, and what is happening now is just sporadic fighting.” 

The conflict is not unfolding as Israel or the United States had hoped. Both parties waited more than a week for Hamas to respond to the negotiating proposal, despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s promise that the organisation would be dismantled, its control over Gaza ended, and its leaders and members captured or killed.

In an effort to negotiate with Hamas, the US administration has repeatedly sent its Director of National Intelligence, William Burns, to Cairo and Qatar to negotiate with the Palestinian resistance. These diplomatic efforts are an implicit acknowledgement of the failure of the US-Israeli war on Gaza. The results indicate that the fighting has effectively ended, and the current sporadic skirmishes, which vary in intensity, show an unwillingness to admit defeat before finally giving in to Hamas’ demands for an end to the war.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that ‘America does not support a raid on Rafah and believes there are other ways to defeat Hamas besides military action’. This comment carries considerable weight as it highlights that Israel’s strategy over the past seven months has not produced the desired result and has failed to achieve its objectives, especially following reports that Hamas has returned to both northern and southern Gaza. As a result, Hamas now has a presence throughout the region from which the Israeli army has withdrawn. Sullivan also alludes to “removing Hamas by non-military means”. This would involve