Why does any maritime agreement between Lebanon and Israel remain fragile?

Posted on by Elijah J Magnier

Written by – Elijah J. Magnier:

Israeli and Lebanese statements have abounded about the possibility of an imminent signing of the maritime agreement between Lebanon and Israel to demarcate the border following the US’s mediation.  The reviving of the potential marine agreement was only possible following Hezbollah’s threat, through its Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, to impose the equation of “demarcation in exchange for the Israeli drilling”. As offered by Sayyed Nasrallah, the alternative was “war if Israel starts drilling without demarcation.” However, the question remains: will Israel dare to sign an agreement with Lebanon under threat from Hezbollah? Will a new Israeli government, under opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who is expected to win the forthcoming Knesset elections, recognise an agreement signed by Yair Lapid’s outgoing government?

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Proofread by: Maurice Brasher

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Published by Elijah J Magnier

Veteran War Zone Correspondent and Senior Political Risk Analyst with over 35 years' experience covering the Middle East and acquiring in-depth experience, robust contacts and political knowledge in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan and Syria. Specialised in terrorism and counter-terrorism, intelligence, political assessments, strategic planning and thorough insight in political networks in the region. Covered on the ground the Israeli invasion to Lebanon (1st war 1982), the Iraq-Iran war, the Lebanese civil war, the Gulf war (1991), the war in the former Yugoslavia (1992-1996), the US invasion to Iraq (2003 to date), the second war in Lebanon (2006), the war in Libya and Syria (2011 to date). Lived for many years in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria.