Iran and Hezbollah’s Response to Israeli Threats: Assessing the Geopolitical Landscape

By Elijah J. Magnier:

Iran and Hezbollah face an increasing barrage of threats from Israel. Amid the shifting geopolitical dynamics, Iran has de-escalated tensions with Arab states and neighbouring countries such as Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Armenia. This strategic shift is aimed at consolidating Tehran’s influence in key areas while strengthening the anti-American and anti-Israeli axis in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Israel, however, remains concerned, especially given America’s focus on its proxy conflict with Russia in Ukraine and its preparations to confront China. As a result, Israel has recently stepped up its warnings of an attack on Iran and expressed the potential danger of targeting Lebanon and Hezbollah, fuelling fears of a large-scale regional conflict in the Middle East. Major General Aharon Haliva, the head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman), has accused Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah of being on the verge of “making a mistake that could lead to war in the Middle East” because Hezbollah might not be alone in fighting Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s habit of vociferously threatening Iran and accusing it of approaching a nuclear weapons capability is nothing new. Netanyahu has persistently pursued this policy for years, despite the International Energy Agency’s assertion that such claims are unfounded. This rhetoric is aimed primarily at an Israeli domestic audience that is increasingly dissatisfied with the prime minister and his government. There have been growing calls for Netanyahu to resign or replace extremist ministers, but he has refrained from taking such action to prevent his government from collapsing. As a result, Netanyahu is resorting to creating crises with Palestinian organisations, orchestrating assassinations and committing massacres against Palestinian leaders and civilians in order to divert attention from internal issues by focusing on security concerns.