Will Israel open fire on Lebanon as it did on Gaza?

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Galant has warned that he may resort to military intervention to force Hezbollah to withdraw 40 kilometres from the Lebanese border. The question is whether Israel will follow through on this threat, potentially opening a new front during or after the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa flooding battle, Hezbollah has been actively involved in supporting the Palestinian cause. This support has been demonstrated through direct action, such as attacks on Israeli positions in the seven Lebanese-occupied villages and the Lebanese-Israeli borders-disputed territories. Hezbollah’s strategy seems to focus on maintaining a specific operational boundary. When Israeli forces bombed beyond 2 to 5 kilometres into Lebanese territory in retaliation for attacks, Hezbollah responded by targeting Israeli positions at the same depth. This tactic sends a clear message to Israel. It underlines Hezbollah’s commitment to enforcing the battle lines it has drawn and imposing its rule of engagement over Israel.

Hezbollah has made it clear that any violation of these lines, particularly attacks on civilians or the press, will be met with an immediate and equal response, which has happened on more than one occasion. This stance reflects Hezbollah’s determination to mirror Israel’s actions and ensure that any escalation or breach of the established boundaries will not go unchallenged. This approach highlights the tension and complexity of the conflict, where each party’s actions directly influence the other’s response, maintaining a delicate balance of power and confrontation but walking on the edge of the abyss.

Israel has used the advanced Merkava 4 tank equipped with the TROPHY laser missile interceptor system since 2011. This development followed the 2006 war with Israel and the encounter in Wadi al-Hujair, southern Lebanon, where Lebanese resistance forces targeted numerous tanks in a historic event known as the Israeli “tank massacre”. Despite its advanced technology, the TROPHY system was deemed ineffective during the Gaza war. Israel had to revert to the older Merkava 3 tanks after the Merkava 4 tanks were hit and destroyed by resistance forces at close range, despite their protection systems. Israel considered the Merkava 4 to be unsuitable for the battle of Gaza and deployed it on the Lebanese borders. The Israeli Merkava tank, equipped with an Israeli-made 120 mm MG 253 smoothbore gun, has a maximum range of 4,000 metres. On the other hand, Hezbollah has used in the latest conflict a variety of weapons,