What is the war scenario with which Israel is threatening Lebanon? What could go wrong?

By Elijah J. Magnier:

Amid escalating tensions, Israel has warned of severe retaliation against Hezbollah for its bombing to the Israeli military barracks, demanding its withdrawal to the Litani River, 40 km from the borders, and threatening significant destruction in southern Lebanon and Beirut. This development raises questions about the potential scope of Israeli military action and the potential retaliation to the Israeli menace.

Israel, equipped with advanced military capabilities and NATO significant support, is capable of launching a full-scale bombing campaign against Hezbollah, as evidenced by the recent use of warplanes and phosphorus shells. Hezbollah, in turn, has stepped up its response with the use of half-ton explosive Burkan rockets, with the conflict currently confined to the border area but with little appetite for it to spread.

Further complicating matters is the involvement of Yemen’s Ansar Allah Houthi forces, which have closed the Bab al-Mandab Strait to Israeli shipping, challenging US efforts to maintain regional maritime security. The United States is actively pursuing diplomatic measures to de-escalate and prevent further escalation of the conflict.

The Israeli military is renowned for its formidable destructive capabilities, unmatched by any other army in the Middle East and bolstered by intelligence and munitions supplies from several NATO member states. This arsenal enables Israel to carry out extensive bombing operations without worrying about running out of ammunition or the costs involved. More recently, Israel has shown a preference for using warplanes rather than drones in Lebanese airspace, signalling a strategy of intense, targeted bombing aimed at inflicting significant damage on Hezbollah and the surrounding Shia communities.