Middle East on the brink: Israel Prepares for Escalation with Iran and the Axis of Resistance

By Elijah J. Magnier:

Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have long been a cornerstone of Middle East politics. The recent assassination in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, the political bureau chief of Hamas, has significantly exacerbated these tensions. This event has forced Israel to prepare for immediate retaliation from Iran and a potentially prolonged, escalating conflict. Mediation efforts have failed to dissuade Iran from retaliating against what it sees as a blatant violation of its sovereignty, especially in light of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s sabotage and rejection of any ceasefire in Gaza. Netanyahu’s decision, against the recommendations of his security forces to end the conflict in Gaza, has left Iran determined to respond harshly and painfully on Israel. This situation risks further escalation, as any significant conflict between Iran and Israel is likely to draw in all members of the “Axis of Resistance”, who will not remain passive regardless of the consequences, unless Israel accept the consequences of its aggression.

Netanyahu’s escalation is driven by his principle of fighting Iran and its allies with American support because he cannot fight alone. The US has formed a coalition of Western powers to intercept Iran’s missiles. This coalition provides Israel not only with moral support but also with a full military partnership, inevitably drawing all forces into the same conflict. Despite the US administration’s claims that the additional troops being sent to the Middle East are purely defensive, Netanyahu knows that the US won’t leave Israel to fight alone. This is despite US reluctance to be drawn into a wider war, especially with its bases in the Middle East at risk during a presidential election period. President Joe Biden has repeatedly urged Netanyahu to end the war and accept proposed deals, but he continues to reject these overtures.

Moreover, Israel’s preparations and political dynamics increase the risk of a broader, more entrenched Middle East conflict, likely involving multiple cycles of retaliation by Iran and potentially drawing in regional and global actors. The potential consequences of such a conflict could be grave, with significant impacts on global stability and the lives of millions.

The Prime Minister’s decision to escalate the conflict is driven by political motives to remain in power until the end of his term in October 2026. Escalation and war can sometimes consolidate political support and marginalise opposition. Acting against the recommendations of Mossad and Shabak chiefs could indicate a strategy aimed at demonstrating decisive leadership and independence in decision-making, which could potentially inflame nationalist sentiments.