The Mistake of Underestimating Netanyahu: The Unexpected Strategies and Losses

By Elijah J. Magnier:

The ongoing war, which broke out in October 2023, has illuminated a significant strategic miscalculation by the Axis of Resistance, particularly with regard to the Palestinian resistance. Their failure to correctly assess the willingness of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to engage in a prolonged, highly destructive military confrontation has led to an unexpected and grim outcome. This war, the longest and most brutal in Palestine’s recent history, has brought unprecedented destruction, causing a staggering number of casualties with no end in sight. It has also highlighted the deep flaws in the strategic assumptions made by both sides, leading to a conflict characterised by immense human suffering, economic devastation, and heightened geopolitical risk across the Middle East.

Historically, Israel has tended to avoid extended wars, particularly when they come at a high cost in terms of civilian and economic losses, as well as the inevitable pressure from the international community. However, Netanyahu has proven willing to adopt a far more aggressive and sustained military strategy than the Palestinian resistance might have anticipated. His domestic political situation is critical to understanding his decision-making in this war. Netanyahu, already facing intense political pressure at home—including corruption charges and widespread protests against his government—seems to have seized upon this war as an opportunity. He has described the conflict as an “existential war on multiple fronts,” a way to unify Israel in the face of an external threat and divert attention from his own precarious political position.