Aleppo is Reeling: Turkey’s Strategy and the Axis of Resistance Under Pressure

By Elijah J. Magnier

The Syrian opposition forces, primarily led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Ahrar al-Sham, with support from Islamist jihadist groups, have launched a significant ground offensive over the past 48 hours in rural Idlib, rural Aleppo, and parts of Aleppo city supported by drones and armoured battalions. In a rapid and well-coordinated advance, they have captured dozens of villages, including strategic areas along the M4 and M5 international highways connecting Damascus to Aleppo and Aleppo to Latakia, as well as the critical cities of Saraqeb and most of Aleppo. With the Syrian army’s defensive lines nearly nonexistent, it appears only a matter of time before opposition forces gain complete control of Aleppo city. Reclaiming these losses would require tens of thousands of troops, a resource the Syrian army does not currently possess.

This swift and unexpected rapid advance underscores the Syrian army’s inability to effectively defend these territories, creating a significant opportunity for Turkey’s allies to push their agenda. HTS has labelled the operation “Deterrence of Aggression,” presenting it as a retaliation for recent artillery shelling by Syrian government forces that caused civilian casualties in Idlib. The operation is more than a retaliation but reflects the opposition’s intent to reclaim territories lost during the 2019 Saraqeb-Idlib battles. With government forces in a chaotic retreat, a defensive line has been hastily established in Hama province. However, the opposition forces are now less than 20 kilometres from Hama, rendering the areas south of Idlib and Aleppo and their rural surroundings largely inaccessible for the government to retake.

The recent offensive in Aleppo and Idlib underscores a complex web of regional dynamics and geopolitical manoeuvres that transcend the Syrian conflict itself. This operation by Syrian opposition forces, supported by Islamist factions, aligns with broader efforts to shift the balance of power against the “Axis of Resistance,” which includes Iran, Hezbollah, and their regional allies. Incrementally, these forces are being targeted, with each alliance member facing significant blows. The outcome of this offensive is poised to reshape the balance of power in northern Syria and the wider region.