Has Iran Depleted Its Missiles and Drones? The Case for Strategic Conservation and Attrition

By Elijah J. Magnier

Iran possesses a large domestic missile industry capable of producing ballistic missiles and drones at scale. In prolonged conflicts, the decisive question is not only how many missiles exist in storage but how quickly they can be replenished through domestic production. While the US president Donald Trump appears eager to end the war before it generates larger military, financial and strategic costs for Washington and its Gulf partners, Israel appears focused on weakening Iran economically as much as militarily. Tehran, for its part, may see advantage in stretching the conflict.

The recurring claim that Iran is running out of missiles and drones should be treated with caution. A reduction in launch tempo does not necessarily indicate degraded capability. In missile warfare, a lower tempo may reflect a deliberate strategic shift. After an initial phase of heavy salvos intended to shock, signal intent and test the opponent’s defences, a missile force may adopt a more measured rhythm to preserve inventory, improve targeting and sustain pressure over time. Conservation in this context is not necessarily weakness but can form part of an operational design aimed at prolonging the conflict and exhausting the defender. 

Missile wars are shaped not only by the volume of fire in the opening phase but also by pacing. A force that launches too much too quickly may create immediate impact but risks prematurely exhausting its stockpile. Slowing the tempo after the initial barrage may instead serve a calculated purpose: keeping the defender on constant alert while maintaining the capacity to continue striking over a longer period. A reduced pace also allows for battle damage assessment and updated intelligence between waves, making subsequent strikes more selective and potentially more effective.