Israel’s Escalating Objectives and Assassinations in Iran: How Long Can Washington Keep Up?

By Elijah J. Magnier –

Israel’s campaign is not only military but also aimed at shaping the diplomatic endgame and constraining US policy options. It has included an unprecedented wave of targeted assassinations against Iran’s senior leadership, beginning with the opening strike that killed the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, alongside Ali Shamkhani, former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Brigadier General Mohammad Shirazi, head of the Supreme Leader’s military office, as well as the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, General Mohammad Pakpour, and Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, both reported killed in the same initial strike. The operation also eliminated key figures within the defence and intelligence apparatus, including Hossein Jabal Amelian, chairman of the Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research, Saleh Asadi, a senior intelligence official, and Bahram Hosseini Motlagh, involved in operational planning. More recent operations have eliminated key power brokers such as Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the Basij paramilitary force, and Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, alongside broader strikes on intelligence leadership and security networks. The pattern is unmistakable: a sustained effort to degrade leadership continuity across political, military, and security institutions. Yet, despite this intensified leadership attrition, there is no evidence of institutional collapse or internal fragmentation, underscoring the limits of decapitation strategies against a resilient and deeply embedded state system.

While Israel and the US concentrated on military targets in the first days of the war, Israel nevertheless shifted towards a broader and more expansive targeting pattern, striking oil depots  and Gas Field in Pars, civilian infrastructure, hospitals, police and customs stations, ancient UNESCO sites, and the Basij (a paramilitary volunteer force under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, composed largely of civilians mobilised to defend the regime and enforce internal control). The conflict has now entered a more serious and potentially dangerous phase, as Israel and the US have acknowledged the bombardment of Iran’s offshore South Pars gas field. This marks the opening of what can be described as an ‘energy destruction war’, targeting the economic lifelines of the state. In such a context, Iran is unlikely to exercise restraint and its response are probably leading to a wider regional and global consequences. The red lines have been removed.

This widening of the battlefield is accompanied by the continued use of targeted assassinations, forming part of a broader strategy aimed at simultaneous economic, institutional, and leadership disruption.Targeted assassinations, even without clear strategic gains, fulfil several immediate military and political objectives for Israel. They disrupt command and control temporarily, eliminate experienced planners, and induce uncertainty within organisations and the state by compelling rapid leadership transitions under pressure. Additionally, these actions serve a signalling function by demonstrating operational reach through electronic or human intelligence, deterrence, and the capacity to target high-value individuals globally, addressing both adversaries and domestic audiences. In certain instances, assassinations aim to degrade specific capabilities linked to individuals, including operational planning, logistics, or external coordination.