Defying Allies: Netanyahu’s Gamble on Rafah Amid US Warnings

Written by Elijah J. Magnier:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu consistently seeks to provoke Hamas, aiming to reassure his far-right government allies without considering the potential consequences for the United States, Israel’s strategic partner. This approach reflects Netanyahu’s indifference to the US presidential election cycle, which is now likened to “Biden’s Vietnam” because of the domestic backlash President Joe Biden faces from university students over his unwavering support for Israel. Despite the immense devastation inflicted on the Palestinian people by the ongoing conflict, the US government continues to supply Netanyahu’s administration with ample weaponry while advocating for a ceasefire. This approach significantly undermines Biden’s electoral prospects. Although the US and Israel agree on strategic objectives for the Gaza Strip, their approaches differ considerably regarding the anticipated Battle of Rafah and the fate of the 1.5 million refugees gathered there.

President Biden urged Netanyahu to refrain from an “ill-advised” offensive in Rafah, aiming to stabilise the region and prevent further humanitarian crises. However, Netanyahu remains determined to forge ahead, emphasising Israel’s right to self-defence and insisting that halting the war would be a catastrophic defeat. His defiance not only jeopardises Israeli-US relations but also risks exacerbating the conflict’s devastating consequences.

The Israeli occupation forces had intensified bombings in Rafah’s eastern neighbourhoods even before Hamas formally responded to ongoing negotiations. Amid US-Palestinian talks in Doha and Cairo, Israel has ordered Rafah residents to evacuate to “humanitarian zones” in the devastated Khan Yunis and Al-Mawasi regions of southern Gaza. Leaflets are being dropped, urging the evacuation of Palestinian residents to the southern ruins, a region ill-prepared to receive them, as the Netanyahu government prepares for the Battle of Rafah. Despite American diplomatic efforts, Netanyahu appears intent on launching this offensive.

The Israeli leadership recognises that any offensive in Rafah could mirror its earlier operations in areas like Jabalia, Gaza City, and Beit Hanoun, where the army withdrew and Hamas reestablished its presence. Despite previous military efforts, Hamas still fires on Israeli sites, as seen in recent strikes at the Karm Abu Salem (Kerem Shalom) crossing and nearby Emitai military bases and Karm Abu Salem Kibutz.