Hezbollah is preparing for a future “intelligent” war with Israel.

By Elijah J. Magnier

Since the outbreak of hostilities on 8 October – initiated by Hezbollah in solidarity with Gaza, its people and their resistance following the tensions at the Al-Aqsa Mosque – Hezbollah’s military leadership has been in a state of active development. This period of war, which has served as a critical front in support of Gaza, has prompted Hezbollah to assess its strategic posture, identify and address any shortcomings, and prepare for future conflicts. This preparation is not simply a matter of preparing for an imminent large-scale war but an effort to keep pace with the evolving dynamics of warfare as dictated by Israel’s advanced technologies used on the battlefield. The question then arises: What developments are taking place within Hezbollah’s decision-making corridors, and what form of preparedness is being organised – not necessarily for immediate confrontation, but for the multiple types of conflict that the future may hold, whether in days, weeks, years or decades?

The withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory in 2000, after 22 years of occupation, marked a significant turning point. Israel, which had one of the most formidable military forces in the Middle East, withdrew due to several factors, the most important of which was guerrilla warfare. Hezbollah’s use of suicide bombings, IEDs and ambushes demonstrated the effectiveness of such tactics and challenged the operational capabilities of Israeli forces in the rugged terrain of southern Lebanon. This strategy not only inflicted a significant psychological and moral blow on the Israeli military and society – as evidenced by the high casualty rate and the absence of a decisive victory – but also failed to secure strategic objectives such as the establishment of a buffer zone and the suppression of resistance movements. In this light, Hezbollah has laid the groundwork for its strategy of confrontation with Israel, drawing on the proven success of guerrilla warfare, which left a lasting impression on Lebanese society during the years of Israeli occupation.