The Looming Battle for Rafah: Implications and Concerns

Author: Elijah J. Magnier

After weeks of sporadic land, sea and air bombardments by Israeli forces, preparations are underway for an offensive on Gaza’s last stronghold, Rafah. These attacks aim to encourage a more significant number of Internally Displaced People to return to the southern areas previously evacuated by the Israeli occupation army. These areas offer tactical advantages, allowing the Israeli military to resume attacks with relatively reduced civilian casualties, subject to a successful total evacuation from Rafah. Despite opposition from US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who criticised the plan for its lack of credibility, the decision to proceed with the invasion appears firm. Sullivan’s reservations reflect broader concerns among US officials about the plan’s feasibility. The mandate for action, however, has received unanimous support across the Israeli political spectrum, with supporters and opponents of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreeing on the inevitability of the attack, even if they differ on strategic priorities.

Netanyahu has publicly stated that “the attack on Rafah will achieve absolute victory”, a statement that reflects his determination despite the scepticism of both Israeli and American military and political officials. This stance sends a message to both Palestinians and international allies that the decision is irreversible, setting the stage for a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict without necessarily achieving the desired outcome.

Hamas’s Final Proposal and Israel’s Strategic Calculations

On 13 April, Hamas, representing all the Palestinian resistance factions, presented a final proposal setting out non-negotiable conditions for resolving the ongoing conflict. The proposal included a permanent ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza and an exchange of all prisoners – dead and alive – currently held by the resistance. In a significant shift from previous demands, Hamas offered to exchange every captured Israeli female soldier for 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 sentenced to life in prison and 20 sentenced to long-term prison terms, beginning with a first batch of 20 female reservists captured on 7 October 2023.

Hamas also sought the involvement of regional and international guarantors in any ceasefire agreement, naming Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and Russia as potential mediators. However, the US has explicitly rejected Turkey and Russia as guarantors.