Why a Comprehensive War Between Israel and Lebanon is Unlikely

By Elijah J. Magnier

The ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian resistance groups has escalated to unprecedented levels, with military operations persisting for eight months without achieving any significant Israeli strategic goals. This prolonged conflict has further destabilised the Middle East. While Gaza commands much of the international community’s attention, another increasingly volatile front exists on the Lebanese border, where Israel and Hezbollah engage in daily exchanges of missile attacks, drone launches, and other hostilities.

The confrontations along the Lebanese border have led to extensive destruction, affecting open and residential areas, farms, and forests. Both sides have suffered from the resulting fires and damage caused by mutual actions. Amid this tension, Israel has threatened to expand its military operations in Lebanon, raising concerns about the potential for a broader, more destructive conflict.

However, despite Israel’s threats and military capabilities, it faces significant challenges in achieving any definitive goals in Lebanon. Defeating Hezbollah, removing it from the Lebanese borders, or significantly reducing its military capabilities are unrealistic and impossible tasks. Hezbollah’s strength has grown substantially over many years, making it a formidable, organised, irregular, non-state actor adversary.

Israel is acutely aware that engaging in a full-scale war with Hezbollah could result in severe consequences, including the potential loss of its military prestige. Such an outcome could lead to a resurgence of emigration among the Israeli population, with individuals returning to their countries of origin. This scenario poses a significant deterrent for Israel, which fears that a comprehensive war could irreparably damage its standing and fail to restore stability.

Given these factors, the prospect of a comprehensive war between Israel and Lebanon, though discussed among military leaders, appears unrealistic on the battlefield. The complexities and potential repercussions make a full-scale conflict less likely in the current geopolitical climate.

Israeli Ministers Call for Action Against Hezbollah Amid Rising Tensions

Israeli Culture and Sports Minister Miki Zohar recently asserted that “delaying a confrontation with Hezbollah would lead to greater disaster for Israel and can no longer be postponed”. His statement underscores the rising urgency among some Israeli officials regarding the situation on the Lebanese border. Meanwhile, Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, both non-decision makers without war experience, have called for an immediate invasion of Lebanon and the destruction of Beirut. 

These statements appear to bolster their political image among their supporters.

Contrary to these aggressive calls, Hezbollah has maintained a strategic approach to its responses against Israeli strikes. Historically, Hezbollah’s reactions have been much more measured and calibrated to its capabilities, unlike the last eight months, which reflect its confidence in its significant destructive potential. This confidence is rooted in its unique units’ advanced training and preparedness, notably the elite forces known as “Al-Radwan.”

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