Is There Any Potential Israeli War on Lebanon? Scenarios and Implications

Elijah J. Magnier:

The main discussion today is focusing not on the war in Gaza, which has been acknowledged as a failure by the Israeli army to occupy and defeat Hamas, but on a potential war in Lebanon, on the northern Israeli front. Nevertheless, beyond enthusiastic rhetoric on one side or another, can Israel realistically start a widespread war in Lebanon, and what would be the objectives even if the US decides to support Israel on the ground effectively? This scenario is unlikely due to its regional ramifications and the potential spillover into a broader Middle Eastern war on several fronts amidst a US presidential election.

The primary Israeli military concern is the enormous damage that Hezbollah could inflict on the domestic front, the Israeli economy, industry, and the future fragile security of Israel. However, since Israel has no diplomatic solution to stop the mini-war Hezbollah has waged in support of Gaza, what are the other options, mainly when the end of Hezbollah’s mini-war against Israel is in Hamas’s hands and dependent on their decisions?

Military Concerns and Objectives

Hezbollah poses a significant threat to Israel with its well-trained, organised, but irregular forces and a substantial arsenal of rockets and missiles capable of reaching deep into Israeli territory. Former mini-cabinet war minister and chief of staff Benny Gantz has stated that a war against Lebanon is necessary because Hamas is leveraging Hezbollah’s actions in ceasefire negotiations. Meanwhile, Maj. Gen. Tamir Heyman, former head of Israeli army intelligence, warns that a northern war with Lebanon would have unprecedented consequences on the domestic front. He emphasises the importance of understanding the endgame and whether Hezbollah is prepared to pay the price for a ceasefire, as failure could leave Israel in its worst state.

Strategic Dilemmas

A significant concern for Israel is the potential damage Hezbollah could inflict on the domestic front, economy, and overall security. Guy Peleg from Israel’s Channel 12 quoted a high-ranking officer, noting that if Israel declares war on Lebanon, the impact could be devastating, likening it to an atomic bomb explosion in the centre of Israel. In the north, on the front with Lebanon, governors are expressing their disappointment, stating that “Israel has given up on the Galilee and has lost the north and its deterrence. Hezbollah has created a buffer zone within Israel, causing tens of thousands of Israelis to become internally displaced. These individuals do not know when the war will end or whether they can reconstruct their homes and send their children to school this year.”

 Ground Invasion and Urban Warfare

Both Israel and Hezbollah engage in daily “war games” in their operations rooms, simulating all possible scenarios in this conflict and considering the worst-case outcomes. On Hezbollah’s side, commanders believe that Israel occupies several Lebanese hills to put pressure on Lebanon after a ground attack. The Hezbollah Ridwan Special Forces —Nasr, Aziz, and Badr— are specifically trained to counter such actions and eliminate any Israeli forces that enter Lebanon and establish static positions.

These units have extensive experience in urban warfare from operations in Syria over more than 80,000 square kilometres and Iraq’s open space, giving them a tactical advantage in defending against Israeli forces. Hezbollah’s commanders believe that any Israeli occupation of Lebanese hills would meet fierce resistance, with ambushes and guerrilla tactics designed to exterminate any occupying forces.

https://buymeacoffee.com/elijahjmagnier