Friday Elections in Iran: Is There Any Change to Expect?

Written by – Elijah J. Magnier

Iran is preparing for its fourteenth presidential election, necessitated by the tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi, who perished in a helicopter crash en route to Tabriz due to bad weather and a collision with a mountainside. The competition to choose Iran’s ninth president is fierce, initially featuring six candidates amid significant regional, international, and economic challenges. This scenario is not unprecedented; the Islamic Republic has faced abrupt leadership changes before, such as the dismissal of Prime Minister Abul Hassan Banisadr after eight months in office and the assassination of President Muhammad Ali Rajai four weeks into his term.

The current race remains intense, particularly between the reformist and traditionalist candidates. If the strongest reformist contenders do not withdraw in the anticipated second round, the reformist candidate can win, leaving a traditionalist candidate unchallenged.

The candidates vying for the presidency are Mohammad Baqir Qalibaf, Amir Hossein Qazizadeh Hashemi (who has announced his withdrawal), Saeed Jalili, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Ali Rezaei Zakani, and the reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian. Recent polls indicate that three candidates—Pezeshkian, Jalili, and Qalibaf—are leading in voter support. This dynamic may force the withdrawal of other candidates, setting the stage for a showdown between two candidates in the second round, assuming neither Jalili nor Qalibaf withdraw.

Mohammad Baqir Qalibaf is a well-known figure in Iranian politics, currently serving as the Speaker of the House of Representatives. He previously held positions as commander of the Air Force in the Revolutionary Guard and commander of the security forces. Saeed Jalili is a conservative who has served as the representative of the Wali al-Fakih, the Guardian of the Jurist, Sayyed Ali Khamenei, in the Supreme National Security Council. He is a veteran of the Iran-Iraq War and was a key figure in Iran’s nuclear negotiations. In the last presidential election, Jalili withdrew in favour of President Ebrahim Raisi, aiding his victory.

Masoud Pezeshkian, a surgeon and former Minister of Health under reformist President Mohammad Khatami, is the most likely to win the majority in the first round of the presidential election if neither Qalibaf nor Jalili withdraws. The unexpected withdrawal of these two powerful traditional candidates would prevent the fragmentation of votes and determine the chances of one reaching the presidency.

All candidates remain acutely aware of the internal economic issues related to foreign policy and the heavy American and Western sanctions imposed on Iran since 1980. These sanctions have intensified with each new U.S. president, starting with President Jimmy Carter and former President Donald Trump enforcing the “maximum pressure” strategy. Despite these pressures, Iran has continued its nuclear program, increasing its uranium enrichment level to 60% and expanding its stock of advanced enrichment devices to nearly 5,000 units. Iran has also achieved an advanced level in the production of sophisticated missiles and drones, sharing the technology with its organic allies and members of the “Axis of Resistance,” mainly in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon. Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as its Syrian allies, have also benefited mainly from Iran’s armament technology and production.