From Tehran to Beirut: The shift from overt military action to covert intelligence

By Elijah J. Magnier:

The Lebanese Resistance today faces a complex challenge: responding to military actions such as the assassination of Jihad Council member Commander Fouad Shukr with vocal, overt military responses. Similarly, Iran is grappling with the aftermath of the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and has vowed direct retaliation. However, this response is complicated by the fact that Iran’s advanced missiles, preparations and drones must be launched in public, making them visible to the dozens of satellites that constantly monitor West Asia, and Iran in particular, reducing the surprise element.

Meanwhile, NATO, led by the United States, is preparing to help Israel and try to intercept many of these Iranian attacks with a formidable array of interceptor aircraft and missiles. Any missile launched from Iran towards Israel would have to travel at least 1,700 kilometres and cross several borders. This would require the Islamic Republic to inform these countries that the missiles were not aimed at them, thereby giving the US and its Middle Eastern allies advance notice, not only through intelligence channels, but also from the very nations whose airspace the missiles might cross. This scenario means that only a limited number of the missiles are likely to reach their targets, especially given the multi-layered Western, Middle Eastern and Israeli interception defences.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears willing to tolerate an Iranian strike as long as it targets purely military sites and the US works to prevent an escalation that could potentially cripple the World economy. Netanyahu is counting on Israeli society to see his actions as a success, having persuaded the US and other Western powers to send significant military reinforcements to the Middle East to defend Israel. His unlawful target-assassination in Beirut and Tehran have forced his enemies to make a difficult choice: either a balanced response or open war, with the West prepared to confront the perceived bully of the Middle East Benjamin Netanyahu.

These escalatory steps have bolstered Netanyahu’s support among Israelis, even as his popularity has waned, outpacing his political rivals who favour a ceasefire and final agreement with the Palestinian resistance to free the Israeli captives.

However, this reliance on loud, overt operations may win tactical victories, but should be