Netanyahu’s Gamble: Israel, Hezbollah, and Palestine’s War Without End

Posted on by Elijah J Magnier

By Elijah J. Magnier:

After nearly a year of conflict, Israel has failed to achieve its goals of destroying Hamas in Gaza and deterring Hezbollah on its northern front. The country has now settled into a destructive status quo in which rocket attacks are a daily occurrence. This situation has severely damaged Israel’s reputation as the strongest army in the Middle East and effectively ended its deterrent power despite the more than 3,600 massacres it has committed, resulting in more than 40,000 dead and 130,000 wounded in Gaza alone. But these developments have not changed the fact that Israel still has one of the best-equipped armies in the world, backed by Western technology, intelligence and military hardware, and is (struggling) to maintain its superiority.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unwilling to end the war in Gaza, even though most military operations have ended, according to Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. Netanyahu has rejected recommendations from the army and security forces to negotiate an end and is obstructing efforts to end the conflict. He has ordered the army to widen the Netzarim corridor, effectively dividing Gaza in two, with the ultimate aim of forcing the northern population out after the near destruction of homes, hospitals, schools and infrastructure. Netanyahu’s focus also seems to be on devoting more military effectiveness to the West Bank, where he is trying to provoke the Palestinians through the “Ben Gvir militia” by expanding illegal settlements and displacing more Palestinians from their land, similar to what happened to the northern Gazans. His strategy is to draw Israel, the US and their allies into a wider war with Lebanon or Iran, with the possibility of further escalation if Netanyahu continues his mandate while provoking the Palestinians in the West Bank. A wider Middle East conflict remains a distinct possibility, especially if (as seems likely) Israel assassinates another Hezbollah leader and crosses further red lines.

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Published by Elijah J Magnier

Elijah J. Magnier is a veteran war correspondent and analyst specialising in military affairs, intelligence, strategic affairs and political risk. He has spent nearly four decades living and reporting inside countries at war, often from the front lines, while developing long-standing access to political leaders, military and intelligence officials, diplomats, armed non-state actors and communities directly affected by conflict. His field experience includes the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the Iran–Iraq War, the Lebanese Civil War, the 1991 Gulf War, the wars in the former Yugoslavia, conflict in Sudan, the war in Afghanistan and Yemen, the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, the 2006 Lebanon War, and the wars in Libya and Syria. He has lived for extended periods in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria, allowing him to follow conflicts, political transformations and regional networks beyond the limitations of short-term war reporting. His work focuses on warfare and deterrence, terrorism and counterterrorism, intelligence, political violence, armed non-state actors, regional security and the relationship between military power and political outcomes. He has also served as an adviser to the European Parliament’s Rapporteur on Iraq and Lebanon. Magnier holds a PhD in Policing and Criminal Justice from Liverpool John Moores University and an MSc in Counterterrorism Studies from the University of London. He has undertaken advanced studies in terrorism—including terrorist ideologies, financing and counterterrorism—at the University of St Andrews; terrorism and counterterrorism at Leiden University; and negotiation, including international and cross-cultural negotiation, at ESSEC Business School in Paris. His work combines sustained field access with academic analysis of war, sovereignty, deterrence and political violence.