Israel’s Normalisation of Violence in Gaza and Lebanon Will Not Deliver Netanyahu a “Total Victory”

By Elijah J. Magnier

Hezbollah has intensified operations along the Israeli border, directly targeting settlements and establishing a new pattern of daily bombardment. In an unprecedented move, the group issued evacuation warnings to 25 villages in northern Israel, which are now abandoned by civilians and occupied by Israeli divisions: the 210th, 98th, 91st, 36th, and 146th. Despite their presence, these divisions have refrained from advancing deep into southern Lebanon, instead relying on a relentless air campaign that has levelled 42 villages without deploying armoured divisions, focusing on paratroopers and infantry but without establishing static positions.

Israel’s reluctance to push tanks into Lebanon likely stems from Hezbollah’s reports of having destroyed at least 45 Israeli tanks. As a result, a reciprocal bombardment strategy has taken hold. Each Israeli strike on Beirut’s suburbs prompts Hezbollah to retaliate on Tel Aviv’s outskirts; attacks on Haifa answer strikes in the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon. This tit-for-tat exchange has solidified new rules of engagement, establishing sustained confrontation as the status quo.

Hezbollah’s resilience is particularly notable given the considerable power imbalance: while a formidable non-state actor, Hezbollah cannot directly rival Israel’s globally recognised military strength, which benefits heavily from US and NATO support. This disparity is often overlooked, with some Middle Eastern critics hastily dismissing Hezbollah as a “defeated organisation.” Yet, Hezbollah’s sustained resistance in this prolonged conflict counters that narrative. Rather than aiming to defeat Israel outright, Hezbollah’s objective has been to recover all occupied Lebanese territories, safeguard Lebanon from further invasions, and develop the capacity to inflict significant damage on any Israeli forces that establish a presence within Lebanon. This deterrence strategy serves to prevent a decisive Israeli victory that could pave the way for forced normalisation of relations between Israel and Lebanon. Furthermore, Hezbollah has constructed a formidable military infrastructure capable of striking Israeli bases across different locations, and it has demonstrated this reach by successfully deploying drones that penetrated Israeli airspace, reportedly even reaching Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence on two separate occasions.