Hezbollah’s Retaliation Challenges Israel’s Confidence in Military Superiority

By – Elijah J. Magnier

Since the United Nations recognised Israel in 1948, it has never faced such intense missile strikes, nor has it seen half of its eight million settlers-citizens rush to shelters. In a historic turn of events, Israel’s economic capital, Tel Aviv, was bombed three times with 17 missiles in a single day. This unprecedented escalation followed Israel’s bombing of Beirut, which resulted in the deaths and injuries of dozens of civilians despite the absence of any Hezbollah military commander in the targeted building. Hezbollah seized this opportunity to impose its rules of deterrence, as articulated by its Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem. In response, Hezbollah launched sustained missile and drone strikes on Israel, demonstrating its ability to enforce a deterrence equation designed to influence Israeli consciousness and expose the growing power of Hezbollah. This force continues to defy efforts to “eliminate” it, both within and outside Lebanon.

In 1992, Israel assassinated Sayyed Abbas al-Moussawi, paving the way for Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to ascend as Hezbollah’s Secretary-General. Israel has deeply regretted that decision, as Nasrallah not only brought military and psychological expertise to the resistance but also developed a profound understanding of the Israeli psyche. Sayyed Nasrallah’s leadership has been marked by a strategic balance, even during periods of heightened conflict, avoiding provocations that might lead Israel into a full-scale war driven by emotional or “mad” decisions.

This calculated restraint was evident when Hezbollah refrained from a direct retaliation against the heart of Tel Aviv after the assassinations of Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut’s suburbs and Commander-in-Chief Fouad Shukr. Sayyed Nasrallah maintained his strategic approach, recognising that an immediate strike on Tel Aviv’s economic hub could provoke an uncontrollable escalation. According to those close to Hezbollah’s internal discussions, Sayyed Nasrallah’s measured responses are part of a broader strategy that anticipates Israel’s reactions and seeks to maintain the upper hand without pushing the conflict into total war.