Russia Elbowed Iran and Is Struggling to Maintain Its Strategic Position in Syria (1)

By Elijah J. Magnier

A high-ranking Russian delegation, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and special envoy Alexander Lavrentyev, recently visited Syria for the first time since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. This visit marks a pivotal moment in the evolving dynamics between Moscow and Damascus, as Russia seeks to retain its foothold in the region amid significant geopolitical shifts.

Despite the collapse of Assad’s regime, Russia has held on to its embassy in Damascus and continues to operate its military bases, including the Hmeimim Air Base and the naval facility in Tartus. However, the new Syrian authorities are beginning to reevaluate the agreements forged under Assad, signalling a potential recalibration of their relationship with Moscow. Notably, a 49-year lease agreement signed in 2017, which allowed Russia to operate its naval base at Tartus, was abruptly terminated by Syria’s new government on January 22, 2025. This lease had provided Russia with its only major naval logistics base outside its borders, making the cancellation a severe blow to Moscow’s strategic position in the Mediterranean.

Shifting Sands in the Syria-Russia Relationship

The cancellation of the Tartus lease reflects a broader shift in Syria’s approach to foreign powers. The termination of this agreement disrupts Russia’s military operations and logistics, significantly weakening its ability to maintain its power in the region and its only access to the warm Mediterranean water. Following this decision, satellite imagery from December 2024 revealed that Russian warships had begun departing the port, leaving the facility largely abandoned.