The day the US blinked first: Yemen’s triumph and Israel’s isolation

By Elijah J. Magnier – 

No US president since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 has so clearly put American interests ahead of Israeli demands. Today, Israel finds itself unexpectedly alone. Despite having the most formidable military in the Middle East, direct coordination with CENTCOM and implicit NATO backing, it remains paralysed by the prospect of Ansar Allah’s missile capabilities. A single precision strike capable of shutting down Ben Gurion Airport for hours is enough to send millions of Israelis into shelters. The reality is stark: Israel cannot sustain a war without the full commitment of the US. Its dependence is no longer a quiet strategic reality – it is an exposed vulnerability.

After months of relentless military pressure, the United States has made a dramatic and uncharacteristic pivot in the Red Sea. In a rare moment of strategic restraint, Washington has ordered a halt to all military operations against Yemen’s Ansar Allah. The decision follows an extraordinarily costly campaign: thousands of bombs dropped, two fighter jets lost and nine of its most advanced MQ-9 Reaper drones shot down – all at an estimated financial cost of around $2 billion.

Despite its vast military superiority, the US has failed to achieve the deterrence it sought. Instead, it has been forced to face a bitter reality: Yemen cannot be subdued by brute force. More importantly, Washington has finally realised what should have been clear from the start – that it had been drawn into a strategically pointless confrontation driven largely by Israel’s escalation and interests, not America’s own.

Instead of following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s path of further military entanglement, President Donald Trump chose a different course. He bypassed Tel Aviv, struck a unilateral deal with Sanaa and ended the US campaign in the Red Sea. It was a calculated exit, designed to avoid total humiliation and save Washington from a deepening, unwinnable war. But it also sent a broader message: even the world’s most powerful military knows when to retreat.

For Ansar Allah, this is nothing less than a political and symbolic victory. Yemen can now claim an extraordinary achievement in modern warfare: standing alone against a US-led military effort and forcing a negotiated withdrawal. In a region where resistance is usually met with overwhelming devastation, Yemen has redefined the narrative. It is no longer seen as an isolated rebel force, but as an actor to be reckoned with.

The scale of this achievement was revealed when Ansar Allah leader Abdel Malek al-Houthi announced that Yemen had carried out 131 attacks on Israel, launching 235 missiles and drones. These operations, he said, were carried out solely to pressure Israel into lifting the humanitarian siege of Gaza. It is a stunning demonstration of asymmetric warfare waged with a clear political purpose – and a level of strategic discipline that has forced global powers to rethink their calculations.

But even as the United States recalibrates, Israel is pushing ahead with a different playbook – one rooted in revenge, expansionism and impunity. Tel Aviv has escalated its campaign against Yemen by targeting critical civilian infrastructure. One of the most egregious acts was the bombing of Sanaa International Airport – the country’s main humanitarian gateway. Operational only for two weekly humanitarian flights to Amman, the airport had no military value. But its destruction, the first in its 50-year history, was a calculated blow to Yemen’s already fragile humanitarian lifeline.

Israel has admitted targeting a civilian aircraft, echoing tactics long used in its campaign against Gaza: crippling civilian infrastructure to inflict collective punishment. Power stations, ports and supply routes have all been systematically targeted, echoing the seven years of US-backed bombing that has devastated Yemen. But this time the brutality is exclusively Israeli – and in open defiance of international law.

The pattern of impunity is familiar. From repeated attacks in Lebanon and Syria to its relentless war on Gaza, Israel continues to operate outside the boundaries of legal and moral accountability. The ICC warrant for Netanyahu’s arrest for war crimes has only increased Israel’s sense of political isolation – not its restraint.

Meanwhile, there are signs of a major shift in Washington. Since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has taken steps that have rattled Israel’s political establishment. Most notably, he publicly revealed that only 21 Israeli hostages are believed to be alive – a direct contradiction of Netanyahu’s narrative, which claimed a larger number. The revelation not only embarrassed Israel, but exposed Netanyahu’s manipulation of hostage numbers to his own people only to prolong the war and avoid political fallout.

Trump went further. Over strong Israeli objections, he reopened negotiations with Iran over its nuclear programme, reopening a diplomatic channel that Tel Aviv had long sought to close. He also ordered humanitarian aid into Gaza – a move seen as a direct challenge to the Israeli coalition government, where several ministers advocate starvation and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians as policy.

Perhaps most significantly, Trump struck a unilateral deal with Yemen’s Ansar Allah – excluding Israel from both the negotiations and the outcome. The deal ended US military operations in the Red Sea and sidelined Israel. For a country long accustomed to being consulted on every US move in the region, this exclusion is a stinging diplomatic blow.

All this underlines a fundamental recalibration of US foreign policy. Israel, long treated as a strategic exception, now finds itself one ally among many – and not necessarily the most important. Washington is beginning to prioritise its own strategic interests over Tel Aviv’s regional ambitions. This rebalancing is particularly evident in Trump’s upcoming visit to the Middle East. Significantly, Israel is not on the itinerary. Instead, Trump is expected to visit Saudi Arabia to negotiate a peaceful nuclear programme, including the construction of a civilian reactor. For Israel, which has a vast undeclared nuclear arsenal that has never been subject to international inspection, this is a deeply unwelcome development. 

Just two days before Iran and the U.S. were set to resume nuclear talks in Rome, Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman visited Tehran—the first high-level Saudi visit since 1997. Welcomed by Iran’s top military and political leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Pezeshkian, the visit signalled more than diplomatic formality.

While both sides claimed the focus was on regional stability and defence cooperation, analysts say the real purpose was to reassure Iran that Riyadh would not support or enable any U.S. or Israeli military action against it. Saudi sources confirmed the Kingdom backs Trump’s diplomatic efforts and opposes war, especially after the 2019 attack—blamed on Iran—that exposed the vulnerability of Saudi oil infrastructure.

Iran, facing ongoing U.S. sanctions, also seeks stable ties with Gulf states. Iranian officials revealed that the Saudis privately clarified their future nuclear programme is for research, not deterrence against Tehran or to strike a nuclear balance in the Middle East but for scientific, power and medical research.

President Trump is no longer linking Saudi Arabia’s peaceful nuclear programme to normalisation with Israel or a broader security pact, The Abraham Accord – an unexpected shift that has blindsided Tel Aviv. For Prime Minister Netanyahu, this is a strategic blow. He may be counting on Trump’s anger to be short-lived and banking on his ability to eventually restore warm relations, but the message is unmistakable: Israel’s leverage is slipping, and its traditional ability to dictate the terms of US regional policy is no longer guaranteed.

Statements by the Israeli Prime Minister and Defence Minister Israel Katz over the past day suggest that they are preparing for a scenario in which Israel is truly on its own. Asked by his spokesman, “Can Israel fight the Houthi threat alone?” Netanyahu replied: “The rule I have established is that Israel will defend itself with its own forces.” But such claims ring hollow. Israel has never fought alone. Since October 2023, it has received more than 2,000 Delta Force and urban warfare veterans. The United States, Germany, Britain and France have set up an air bridge to support Israel, providing aerial reconnaissance, ammunition and logistical support for a war against an area no larger than 363 square kilometres – Gaza. In September and October, Hezbollah in Lebanon was subjected to hundreds of daily air strikes, all directly coordinated by CENTCOM. When Trump reached power, Israel received unique buster bunker bombs that only the US manufacturing and has in its warehouses.

In addition to the $3.5 billion in annual US military aid, tens of billions more have flowed to Israel to support its ongoing war effort. Strategic aircraft such as the F-15 and other advanced jets, as well as air-to-air refuelling and access to air bases between Israel and potential targets such as Iran and Yemen, have made it clear that Israel does not stand alone – it is embedded in a network of Western support.

The contrast could not be more stark. As Israel escalates a reckless and legally dubious military campaign, the United States is stepping back, seeking agreements and showing signs of long-overdue strategic pragmatism. Yemen, once dismissed as a peripheral battlefield, has become a case study in the limits of military power and the enduring power of resistance. By forcing the US to the negotiating table, Ansar Allah has achieved what many far more powerful actors have failed to do.

The campaign against Yemen was never a war of necessity. It was a political miscalculation, driven by Netanyahu’s desire to provoke a wider regional conflict. That Washington has finally realised this – and acted accordingly – may mark a turning point in the broader Middle East equation. It suggests that Israel’s influence over US decision-making, once sacrosanct, is no longer absolute.

For the people of Yemen, the price has been enormous. But their resistance has won them something extraordinary: recognition, leverage and a chance to reshape their international standing. The destruction of Sanaa airport may have been intended as humiliation – but it only underlined Israel’s desperation. In the end, the missiles fell, the drones crashed, and it was Washington, not Sanaa, that blinked first.

This outcome will reverberate beyond Yemen. Across the region, actors from Lebanon to Iraq and beyond will draw lessons from Ansar Allah’s resilience. The message is clear: determined resistance, even in the face of overwhelming force, can achieve results. And for Israel, the warning is equally clear: escalation without strategy and impunity without limits come at a cost – diplomatic, strategic and perhaps ultimately existential.