The US, Israel, Iran, and the Exhaustion of an imposed War

By Elijah J. Magnier –

Introduction

Less than a week into the war, global powers are still not reacting to stop the war. China has ordered its citizens to evacuate Israel via Jordan, and Russia has instructed its nationals to leave Iran through Azerbaijan. The bombardments have not ceased in both sides but has developed further to a more destructive level where Israel is bombing Iran’s oil and refinery to cripple further its economy. Iran, facing overwhelming Israeli air superiority, has nonetheless demonstrated that military dominance alone cannot protect the aggressor from reciprocal devastation. This lesson will not go unnoticed. Iran’s deployment of ballistic missiles, while not a direct counter to superior air power, has proven unexpectedly effective. The implications are far-reaching: other nations are now likely to accelerate investment in missile arsenals, drawing strategic lessons from Iran’s experience.

Nevertheless, the pathway out of this war remains distant. The conflict continues to evolve, and any prospect of de-escalation appears fragile and far from imminent. On the contrary, President Donald Trump shut the door, repeating Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim that Iran was close to building a nuclear bomb and “must fully dismantle its programme and give up.” 

This stance contradicted assessments from within his own administration, including that of Tulsi Gabbard, a senior Intelligence voice in his administration, who stated that Iran was not pursuing a nuclear bomb and had, since 2003, long abandoned its military nuclear ambitions in line with a fatwa issued by Supreme Leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei — the same figure Netanyahu has openly suggested assassinating.

In reality, this is Netanyahu’s war. He is doing everything possible to draw the United States and Europe into it because Israel cannot sustain such a conflict alone, regardless of its avalanche of weapons and intelligence support from its allies. Israel is actively seeking a military coalition to avoid fighting alone in a war it started but cannot finish with stated objectives fully achieved. Netanyahu has warned that Iranian missiles pose a danger that could reach the UK and France. Both nations have announced Israel’s right to defend itself when Iran was attacked and didn’t fire a bullet. They expressed their intention to deploy forces to the region — ostensibly to help intercept missiles and relieve the burden on Israel’s overstretched defences.

More crucially, their presence provides Netanyahu with political cover. By involving European powers, he hopes to legitimise what remains, under international law, an illegal act of aggression. The Israeli Prime Minister continues to advocate for the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, proposing that U.S. scientists and inspectors ensure that nothing remains.