The Limits and Vulnerability of the State and the Resistance: How Lebanon Confronts a War Defined by US and Israeli Power and Pressure

By Elijah J. Magnier

For nearly two decades, Lebanon has lived under a fragile equation defined by an unresolved conflict with Israel, limited state capacity, and the presence of a resistance movement that emerged to compensate for the structural imbalance of power. This equation is again under strain as Israeli attacks intensify across the southern border and political rhetoric in Washington attempts to recast Lebanon’s internal security dynamics through distorted and selective narratives. A clear understanding of the current moment requires distinguishing between the roles of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Armed Forces, and the Lebanese state, and recognising how external actors have consistently sought to reshape these roles to Israel’s advantage.

Before the 2024 war on Lebanon, Hezbollah relied primarily on deterrence by narrative. It promoted the idea that the Axis of the Resistance operated as a tightly coordinated front, where any threat to one actor would trigger a collective response. In practice, this axis was never a unified command. It was a psychological posture intended to project cohesion and discourage Israel from pursuing a full war. This narrative collapsed on the seventh of October, when Hamas launched its attack while Hezbollah limited its own engagement to controlled activity along the border, Syria refused to be drawn in, and Iraqi factions sent only symbolic drones before halting their involvement. Yemen was the sole actor that continued launching drones and missiles in a symbolic effort whose strategic effect was mainly financial given its lack of territorial continuity with Israel that maintained its war plans regardless.