Underestimating Tehran: How Netanyahu and Trump Turned Quick Victory into Endless War

By Elijah J. Magnier –

When Israeli air raid sirens sounded again in 2026 following Iranian missile launches targeting military facilities and US installations across the Middle East, the war’s central paradox became increasingly visible. What had initially been presented as a decisive campaign designed to ‘change the regime’, cripple Iran’s military capabilities, destroy its nuclear and missile programs and deter its regional influence has instead evolved into a far more complex strategic confrontation. The conflict has revealed not only the resilience of Iranian retaliation but also the limits of military coercion in reshaping the region’s political balance.

Unlike Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it is now widely acknowledged that President Donald Trump underestimated both Iran’s capacity and its willingness to retaliate and sustain a prolonged confrontation. Israel encouraged and supported the joint military campaign with the expectation that Iranian retaliation against Israel and multiple US bases across the Middle East would widen the conflict, potentially drawing Arab states more directly into the confrontation or, at the very least, further damaging the already fragile relationship between Iran and several Gulf governments.