Iran-US dialogue deadlock: the gap is too wide for diplomacy and war won’t achieve the US-Israeli desired objectives

By Elijah J. Magnier –

Iran is waiting for the first days of May to see whether Donald Trump secures Congress’s approval to continue his war on Iran. If Congress restricts him, he will have 30 days to withdraw US forces. If it does not, Tehran will have to reassess its options. Yet the problem is deeper than the congressional timetable. Iran wants the end of the war first, the negotiation about the Strait of Hormuz passage and fees and last point would be the nuclear program. This is more reason why a diplomatic solution between the United States and Iran is now almost impossible, not because diplomacy has failed in principle, but because the two positions have become structurally incompatible. Washington seeks a total rollback with the blockade of Hormuz as leverage, while Tehran insists on sovereign continuity, the end of the war, compensation for the damage of war and the lifting of all illegal sanctions.

If war remains the only available path, the next phase is likely to be far more violent and destructive than the first weeks, which failed to break Iran’s internal cohesion or its capacity to retaliate. Iran now understands the conflict as existential. Trump’s threat to wipe out an entire civilisation hardened Tehran’s perception that this is no longer coercive diplomacy but a civilisational war. It has united Iranians across political and social divides, narrowed the space for compromise, and hardened Iran’s negotiating position. However, any war on Iran would fail to achieve the objectives initially announced by the attackers at the start of the war.

Meanwhile, the US insists on maintaining the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran insists on collecting transit fees for passage and services to compensate for the hundreds of billions of dollars of damage caused by Israel and the US. The world will now have to adapt to a significant rise in costs, and consumers will ultimately pay the price.