After Iran, Turkey: Israel Identifies Its Next Strategic Rival

Posted on by Elijah J Magnier

By Elijah J. Magnier –

Last February 2026, three days before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu announced the next stage of his regional strategy. Israel, he said, had inflicted severe blows on the “radical Shia axis” led by Iran but now faced an “emerging radical Sunni axis”. To confront both, he proposed constructing a “hexagon” connecting Israel with India, Greece, Cyprus and selected Arab, African and Asian states. At that moment, Netanyahu did not identify Turkey as the centre of this emerging Sunni threat. His subsequent statements and Israel’s military operations in Syria have made the intended target increasingly clear. Turkey is the principal Sunni regional power capable of limiting Israeli predominance. It possesses NATO’s second-largest armed forces, an expanding defence industry, combat-tested drones, missiles, warships and electronic warfare systems. It also has the political and economic capacity to support the reconstruction of a centralised Syrian state. Today, Israel clearly objects the strategic consequences of a Syria protected by Turkey.

From T4 to Abu al-Duhur

In April 2025, Israeli aircraft attacked the T4, Palmyra and Hama airbases after Turkish military teams inspected them for possible deployment under a prospective defence agreement with Syria’s new government. Turkish planners were reportedly considering T4 as a location for aircraft, surveillance equipment and air-defence systems.

The attacks severely damaged the bases. They were not limited to destroying remnants of Bashar al-Assad’s military infrastructure. They warned Ankara that Israel would not accept a Turkish presence capable of restricting Israeli operations in Syrian airspace. Israeli officials regarded the potential deployment of Turkish air-defence systems at T4 as a threat.

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Published by Elijah J Magnier

Elijah J. Magnier is a veteran war correspondent and analyst specialising in military affairs, intelligence, strategic affairs and political risk. He has spent nearly four decades living and reporting inside countries at war, often from the front lines, while developing long-standing access to political leaders, military and intelligence officials, diplomats, armed non-state actors and communities directly affected by conflict. His field experience includes the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the Iran–Iraq War, the Lebanese Civil War, the 1991 Gulf War, the wars in the former Yugoslavia, conflict in Sudan, the war in Afghanistan and Yemen, the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, the 2006 Lebanon War, and the wars in Libya and Syria. He has lived for extended periods in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria, allowing him to follow conflicts, political transformations and regional networks beyond the limitations of short-term war reporting. His work focuses on warfare and deterrence, terrorism and counterterrorism, intelligence, political violence, armed non-state actors, regional security and the relationship between military power and political outcomes. He has also served as an adviser to the European Parliament’s Rapporteur on Iraq and Lebanon. Magnier holds a PhD in Policing and Criminal Justice from Liverpool John Moores University and an MSc in Counterterrorism Studies from the University of London. He has undertaken advanced studies in terrorism—including terrorist ideologies, financing and counterterrorism—at the University of St Andrews; terrorism and counterterrorism at Leiden University; and negotiation, including international and cross-cultural negotiation, at ESSEC Business School in Paris. His work combines sustained field access with academic analysis of war, sovereignty, deterrence and political violence.