Netanyahu Faces Defeat, but Can Israel Escape His Doctrine?

Posted on by Elijah J Magnier

By Elijah J. Magnier

Benjamin Netanyahu may be approaching the end of his latest term as Israel’s prime minister, but his political career should not be confused with the political doctrine he has spent decades constructing. President Isaac Herzog’s decision to formally entrust Gadi Eisenkot with forming Israel’s next government on 8 November marks a significant political defeat for Netanyahu. Eisenkot secured the recommendations of 67 members of the 120-seat Knesset, compared with 46 for Netanyahu, but these endorsements do not constitute a governing coalition. His challenge is now to transform parliamentary support for replacing Netanyahu into an administration capable of surviving its own ideological contradictions. Beyond that immediate struggle lies a more consequential question: can Israel depart from the political and strategic system Netanyahu has helped establish, or will his successors continue governing within its boundaries?

Netanyahu is arguably the most accomplished political survivor in Israel’s history. He has dominated Israeli politics for three decades, recovered from electoral defeats, survived corruption allegations and criminal proceedings, rebuilt alliances after political isolation and repeatedly persuaded competing ideological movements to regard his leadership as indispensable. His extraordinary political intelligence lies not simply in winning elections but in understanding the weaknesses, ambitions and mutual suspicions of his adversaries. Even when unable to secure an outright parliamentary majority, he has often succeeded in making alternative governing arrangements difficult to sustain.

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Published by Elijah J Magnier

Elijah J. Magnier is a veteran war correspondent and analyst specialising in military affairs, intelligence, strategic affairs and political risk. He has spent nearly four decades living and reporting inside countries at war, often from the front lines, while developing long-standing access to political leaders, military and intelligence officials, diplomats, armed non-state actors and communities directly affected by conflict. His field experience includes the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the Iran–Iraq War, the Lebanese Civil War, the 1991 Gulf War, the wars in the former Yugoslavia, conflict in Sudan, the war in Afghanistan and Yemen, the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, the 2006 Lebanon War, and the wars in Libya and Syria. He has lived for extended periods in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria, allowing him to follow conflicts, political transformations and regional networks beyond the limitations of short-term war reporting. His work focuses on warfare and deterrence, terrorism and counterterrorism, intelligence, political violence, armed non-state actors, regional security and the relationship between military power and political outcomes. He has also served as an adviser to the European Parliament’s Rapporteur on Iraq and Lebanon. Magnier holds a PhD in Policing and Criminal Justice from Liverpool John Moores University and an MSc in Counterterrorism Studies from the University of London. He has undertaken advanced studies in terrorism—including terrorist ideologies, financing and counterterrorism—at the University of St Andrews; terrorism and counterterrorism at Leiden University; and negotiation, including international and cross-cultural negotiation, at ESSEC Business School in Paris. His work combines sustained field access with academic analysis of war, sovereignty, deterrence and political violence.