Written by – Elijah J. Magnier:
Following the declared referendum of the province of Donbas and the two cities on the Dnipro river, Zaporizhzhia ( site of the most significant nuclear reactor in Europe) and Kherson, which is adjacent to the Crimean Peninsula, on their annexation to Russia, they became Russian territories. Therefore, any Ukrainian attack on these provinces and cities will be considered a direct attack on Russia. Moscow is sending a message to the world that it will defend its territories by all means, including tactical and conventional nuclear weapons, if and when necessary. This announcement coincides with a strong speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which he announced the partial mobilization to add 300,000 men to the battlefield to show his determination to confront the US and, with it, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) on Ukrainian soil, including Europe. Will this decision hasten the end of the war?
The answer is certainly no! This is only the beginning of the confrontation between Russia and the West, with a much more complex and fiercer pace expected. The possibility of the war expanding to nearby countries is no longer to be excluded. The announcement of western leaders to continue supplying military hardware and challenge Russia will only increase Moscow’s determination to continue the war. Undoubtedly, Russia had to announce the acceleration of the army industry production of missiles and military equipment necessary for the war and the involvement of new Russian forces in the Ukrainian battle. Moscow’s losses on the battlefield and thousands of kilometres in the northern region of Kharkiv also increased the western appetite to continue confronting Russia and increase military support.
The Russian president called for the partial mobilization of additional forces that had previously served in the armed forces. There were not enough static forces to defend Russian gains on Ukrainian territories. Fighting with 150,000 to 200,000 men over 125,000 sqkm on a front line that reaches 800 to 1000 km is virtually impossible. The science of war suggests that the ratio of the attacking forces should be at least three times more numerous than defending troops. Following the additional mobilization and when the new forces join the battlefield, the number of Russian attacking forces will become comparable to that of Ukrainian soldiers with its reserve forces (500,000 men). Therefore, the number of Russian troops may increase more than what is announced today in the future as the war is expected to last long. Having a total of 500,000 Russian forces remains small if the Russian president wants to accelerate the pace of the war and end it quickly.
Over 20% of the Russian spearhead forces are removed from the battlefield. Therefore, as announced by the Russian leadership, the military command must compensate for the loss by adding new forces to strengthen the attacking force. Another critical point is the time needed for these new forces to be included in the combat. Usually, armies (except for Israel) do not subject decommissioned forces to regular annual training. They do not regularly prepare them for integration into the specialized units that retirees or decommissioned must join. Therefore, re-training, integrating and distributing decommissioned forces into new units requires several months, even if their initial task would be to protect the front edge and prevent any penetration of well-prepared enemy
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