What will happen if Russia stops exporting gas to ‘non-friendly’ countries?

Written by – Elijah J. Magnier:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to ban the supply of oil and its derivatives to “unfriendly” countries that impose a price cap for Russian energy, starting this February for five months. This means that price no longer matters even if the maximum price set by Western countries is higher than the market price and falls in Russia’s interest because the Kremlin refuses to submit to this example of the diktats of the West, led by the US. This means that turbulence is inevitable in the global markets, especially as China has resumed its high imports of energy, which it had reduced during the rise in Covid-19 infections in recent months. Russia said it had taken its decision without consulting the OPEC+, which had caused a shock to markets when it cut production last November by 2 million barrels per day. Following the OPEC+ decision, the organisation’s total production fell to 29 million barrels per day, of which 8.2 million are Russia’s production. The Western world, i.e. Europe, Britain, Canada, Australia and Japan, will be forced to look for other energy producers’ sources, such as Iran and Venezuela. The west will probably have to bear the burden of increasing prices, particularly if Russia decides to cut production and no other OPEC+ country steps forward to fill the void Moscow will have created in the energy markets.

Since last February, when the war began – which Russia called a ” Special Operation” – there has been disagreement among European countries about whether or not to submit to the US desire for a complete cessation of Russian energy purchasing. The US could stop the Nord Stream -1 and 2 pipelines through political population pressure, followed by the Baltic Sea pipeline explosion, which interrupted Europe’s return to buying cheap Russian gas.

Europe got into sharp disagreements over giving up the Russian gas first and oil and its derivatives several months later because the continent and its leaders thought that Russia would soon collapse and the European leaders would share the “spoils of war” with the US. The winds blew counter to the western ships’ course when Russia resisted, notwithstanding the thousands of sanctions imposed on it. The Russian army and the separatist forces advanced onto the battlefield to occupy over 100,000 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory. The battlefield results proved that the western sanctions were ineffectual and would certainly not contribute to the return of the lost Ukrainian territories. Multiple voices emerged in the Belgian capital Brussels, the meeting place of European leaders where the decisions related to supporting Ukraine are taken. European officials differed among themselves regarding setting a cap on energy prices, especially since some countries needed it more than Russia needed their money. 

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Proofread by: Maurice Brasher


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