Iran – Israel: The Inevitable Strike, the Various Scenarios and the Consequences

Written by Elijah J. Magnier:

It is now unequivocally clear that Iran has decided to retaliate directly against Israel, departing from its previous strategy of acting through its allies. This decision comes in the aftermath of the bombing and destruction of the consulate building in Damascus, which under the 1961 Vienna Convention is considered a protected diplomatic installation, inviolable by such acts. The remaining questions concern the timing of the retaliation and the location of such a strike. Iran’s Foreign Ministery has signalled to the United States through the Swiss embassy in Tehran, the guardian of US interests, its intentions to retaliate to the Israeli destruction of the Iranian consulate. Tehran has received assurances from Washington that it was not informed of the attack and its neutrality, provided its bases and forces are not targeted. Moreover, the implications of this act are profound, especially as Israel prepares for a reciprocal response, given the intolerability of any casualties resulting from Iran’s actions.