Is Netanyahu Trying to Drag Everyone, Including the US, into a Comprehensive Battle?

Posted on by Elijah J Magnier

By – Elijah J. Magnier

Following the strike on the port of Hodeidah in Yemen, Israel directed its missiles at Beirut and Tehran and assassinated an Iranian advisor in Damascus, while the US struck Popular Mobilisation Forces sites in Iraq. This dangerous escalation undoubtedly aims to corner the “Axis of Resistance” and re-establish deterrence over them, which was lost ten months ago. If the Axis does not respond, Israel will likely increase its strikes and assassinations, disregarding all red lines. Conversely, if there is a response, it could target cities like Haifa or Tel Aviv, prompting a retaliatory escalation that might spiral into a comprehensive war. The question for Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah’s strikes back is not if, but when, where, and how Israel will react.

It is essential to consider that a multi-front war is already in progress, with typical losses and gains. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to claim victories by striking Iran twice: assassinating the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in the heart of Tehran, thereby violating Iran’s sovereignty. Netanyahu seeks to present himself as a leader capable of fighting on multiple fronts, hurting Israel’s enemies, and restoring Israel’s image as a formidable military force. He also succeeded in assassinating Hajj Mohsen – Fouad Shukr, a key leader who has been directing the war since October 8 as an assistant to the head of the Jihad Council in Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Shukr was killed while in the house he frequented at the seventh floor, showcasing a high level of intelligence and operational success.

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Published by Elijah J Magnier

Elijah J. Magnier is a veteran war correspondent and analyst specialising in military affairs, intelligence, strategic affairs and political risk. He has spent nearly four decades living and reporting inside countries at war, often from the front lines, while developing long-standing access to political leaders, military and intelligence officials, diplomats, armed non-state actors and communities directly affected by conflict. His field experience includes the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the Iran–Iraq War, the Lebanese Civil War, the 1991 Gulf War, the wars in the former Yugoslavia, conflict in Sudan, the war in Afghanistan and Yemen, the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, the 2006 Lebanon War, and the wars in Libya and Syria. He has lived for extended periods in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria, allowing him to follow conflicts, political transformations and regional networks beyond the limitations of short-term war reporting. His work focuses on warfare and deterrence, terrorism and counterterrorism, intelligence, political violence, armed non-state actors, regional security and the relationship between military power and political outcomes. He has also served as an adviser to the European Parliament’s Rapporteur on Iraq and Lebanon. Magnier holds a PhD in Policing and Criminal Justice from Liverpool John Moores University and an MSc in Counterterrorism Studies from the University of London. He has undertaken advanced studies in terrorism—including terrorist ideologies, financing and counterterrorism—at the University of St Andrews; terrorism and counterterrorism at Leiden University; and negotiation, including international and cross-cultural negotiation, at ESSEC Business School in Paris. His work combines sustained field access with academic analysis of war, sovereignty, deterrence and political violence.