Iran – Israel war: Operation True Promise3 an Escalation to De-escalate

Elijah J Magnier:

Iran has been sending mixed signals to the international community and neighbouring Middle Eastern countries about its intentions to retaliate against the Israeli bombing. Although Tehran has indicated a desire to avoid an outright war with Israel, it has made clear that this restraint is conditional. Iran would not disregard an immediate halt to the Israeli aggression in Gaza and Lebanon, and it will not allow Hezbollah—its strongest ally in Lebanon—to suffer defeat. Israel’s recent offensives have inflicted significant damage on Gaza and Hezbollah, including assassinations of key leaders and destruction of communication networks and supply warehouses. However, Iran sees these losses as replaceable. It has demonstrated resilience through retaliatory responses and strategic adjustments, signalling its readiness to escalate further if Israel does not cease all hostilities and destructions.

Iran’s intentions to retaliate against Israel are unlikely to change following Donald Trump’s election, as he will not take office until January 20. Although Trump has previously shown a strong stance against Iran, both during his last term and throughout his recent campaign, Iran is likely to continue with its current strategy in the short term. For now, Iran recognises that U.S. foreign policy and military decisions remain under the control of the outgoing administration until the transition is complete.

However, Trump’s election could influence Iran’s broader approach to the ongoing conflict with Israel. The anticipation of a more confrontational US stance under Trump may prompt Iran to factor in a heightened level of US support for Israel as it evaluates its next moves. In the immediate future, Iran will likely weigh these prospective shifts against its current priority of supporting allies in Gaza and Lebanon, focusing on regional outcomes rather than altering its stance based on potential changes in US policy post-inauguration.

Ultimately, while Trump’s election introduces future uncertainties, it is unlikely to drastically alter Iran’s immediate plans, particularly with the transition period giving Iran time to gauge potential shifts in US policy.

 Iran’s Retaliatory Operations and Strategic Messaging