With the beginning of a long road towards a ceasefire, Will Hezbollah or Israel Declare Victory?

By Elijah J. Magnier

Hezbollah has received the initial U.S.-Israeli 13-point drafted proposal for a ceasefire; however, it remains far too early to predict an end to the hostilities. On the ground, Israel has deployed five divisions along the Lebanese border, intensifying efforts to advance beyond southern villages located 4 to 5 kilometres from the border. These manoeuvres aim to strengthen Israel’s negotiating position and establish a deeper foothold in Lebanese territory.

Israel has now initiated the second phase of its offensive, concentrating forces along multiple axes to seize the strategically significant high ground and expand its presence further into southern Lebanon. The clear objective is to exert military pressure to secure leverage in future negotiations.

On the other hand, Hezbollah is expected to categorically reject any scenario where Israel oversees the implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701 or any negotiations not preceded by a comprehensive ceasefire. Allowing Israel to monitor or verify whether Hezbollah is storing weapons south of the Litani River is widely regarded as a violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty. This stipulation is deemed unacceptable not only by Hezbollah but also by the Lebanese government, which views such a condition as an infringement on the nation’s territorial integrity and authority.

The situation remains highly volatile, with both sides entrenched in their positions. While the international community pushes for a resolution, the conditions on the ground and the deep mistrust between the parties suggest that the path to peace will be fraught with significant challenges.