Trump’s Hormuz Trap: Threats Raise Oil Prices, Diplomacy Signals Weakness

By Elijah J. Magnier –

President Donald Trump is caught in a strategic trap of his own making. Bombing Iran every night, or expanding the campaign to additional targets, has neither persuaded Tehran to concede nor deterred it from enforcing its own rules governing navigation and security in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, every threat of further escalation increases anxiety across energy markets, raises shipping and insurance costs and pushes oil prices upward. Yet every suggestion that a ceasefire may be approaching is interpreted in Tehran as evidence that Washington is searching desperately for an exit.

Benjamin Netanyahu helped create this dilemma by persuading Trump that concentrated military pressure could break Iran quickly. Their interests have since diverged: Israel benefits from the continued degradation of Iranian capabilities, while Trump needs lower oil prices, restored navigation and a conclusion he can present to the American public as victory.