Will Netanyahu Isolate the South from the Bekaa and Occupy South of the Litani Before Halting the War?

Posted on by Elijah J Magnier

By Elijah J. Magnier:

For the first time since the 2006 war on Lebanon, Israeli occupation forces have reached the village of Deir Mimas, located less than one kilometre south of the Litani River. Tanks from the 210th and 98th divisions, stationed in Metula, have been brought into the area, intensifying a battlefront close to the village of Khiyam. There, fierce clashes are ongoing with Hezbollah resistance forces as Israel attempts to sever the link between Hezbollah units in the Bekaa Valley and those south of the Litani River. Israel aims to occupy the region south of the Litani River before entering negotiations, seeking to impose conditions for halting the war. This strategy is based on its belief—albeit inaccurate—that it has sufficiently weakened 80% of Hezbollah’s capabilities. The question remains: what is the current military reality, and how might this conflict conclude?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unwilling to accept UN Resolution 1701, signed by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in 2006, which required the evacuation of Hezbollah’s weapons south of the Litani River, a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, and respect for Lebanon’s sovereignty. Netanyahu’s position diverges significantly, as he views Israeli control of Lebanese airspace post-war as essential to Israel’s national security. This control facilitates intelligence-gathering on Hezbollah’s development, leadership, and military arsenals.

Netanyahu also considers the Shebaa Farms and the southern portion of Ghajar to be Israeli territory, reinforcing his expansionist agenda. His objective is clear: achieve an “absolute victory” on the battlefield, as promised at the outset of the conflict. This involves destroying all known tunnels, “cleansing” the area south of the Litani, and ensuring that Israel sets the terms for post-war negotiations. Such terms would likely include provisions for ground and aerial surveillance to prevent arms supplies into the occupied area and allow Israeli monitoring or intervention if the Lebanese army or UNIFIL forces fail to neutralise Hezbollah’s threat.

Netanyahu aims to secure long-term regional dominance while projecting strength to domestic and international audiences. However, the ongoing conflict and resistance suggest that achieving these ambitions will be fraught with challenges.

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Published by Elijah J Magnier

Elijah J. Magnier is a veteran war correspondent and analyst specialising in military affairs, intelligence, strategic affairs and political risk. He has spent nearly four decades living and reporting inside countries at war, often from the front lines, while developing long-standing access to political leaders, military and intelligence officials, diplomats, armed non-state actors and communities directly affected by conflict. His field experience includes the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the Iran–Iraq War, the Lebanese Civil War, the 1991 Gulf War, the wars in the former Yugoslavia, conflict in Sudan, the war in Afghanistan and Yemen, the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, the 2006 Lebanon War, and the wars in Libya and Syria. He has lived for extended periods in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria, allowing him to follow conflicts, political transformations and regional networks beyond the limitations of short-term war reporting. His work focuses on warfare and deterrence, terrorism and counterterrorism, intelligence, political violence, armed non-state actors, regional security and the relationship between military power and political outcomes. He has also served as an adviser to the European Parliament’s Rapporteur on Iraq and Lebanon. Magnier holds a PhD in Policing and Criminal Justice from Liverpool John Moores University and an MSc in Counterterrorism Studies from the University of London. He has undertaken advanced studies in terrorism—including terrorist ideologies, financing and counterterrorism—at the University of St Andrews; terrorism and counterterrorism at Leiden University; and negotiation, including international and cross-cultural negotiation, at ESSEC Business School in Paris. His work combines sustained field access with academic analysis of war, sovereignty, deterrence and political violence.