The Organised Rapid Fall of Assad: Why and What Comes Next?

By Elijah J. Magnier

 

 

The swift military developments in Syria have culminated in the fall of President Bashar al-Assad and his departure from Damascus without the Syrian army offering resistance. This transition followed high-level discussions among key players, including Turkey, Russia, and Iran. Yet, the surprises in the Levant are far from over; they have only just begun with this leadership shift and the attempt to establish a new state under entirely different standards.

 

One of the key factors behind the swift fall of Assad’s regime lies in the strategy adopted by the attacking forces in the cities and villages they captured, particularly in the Idlib countryside, Aleppo and its rural areas (aside from isolated extremist acts), as well as in Hama, Homs, Damascus and the south of Syria. The attackers deliberately distanced themselves from the brutal tactics that had, since 2011, united the world against the forces fighting the Syrian army. This shift in approach allowed the regime to collapse like a snowball rolling downhill, with little resistance, as one city after another surrendered. This organised capitulation occurred without significant bloodshed, following protracted negotiations led by the primary brokers: Turkey, Iran, and Russia

 

Russia and Iran have lost a steadfast ally and a strong foothold in the Levant, leaving Turkey to emerge as the dominant power. Istanbul supported the attacking forces militarily, orchestrated their operations, and meticulously directed their performance through a joint operations room. Under Turkish guidance, these forces achieved all their objectives in areas previously held by the Syrian army. However, they did not extend their success to regions controlled by US-backed Kurdish forces in the northeast, where authority has expanded to include Deir Ezzor and Raqqa.

 

Syria remains deeply fractured, with the northeast under Kurdish control, Israel expanding its occupation of additional Syrian territories in the south, and no unified factions emerging to form a cohesive governing authority. Instead, Mohammed Ghazi al-Jallali, Assad’s prime minister, has been appointed as the representative of the interim authority now managing the country. What events brought Syria to this point, and what lies ahead for its future?

 

Assad’s prime minister: 

As the head of the interim authority, Prime Minister al-Jallali’s primary responsibility is likely to manage the day-to-day functions of the state while preparing for a longer-term transition. This includes maintaining essential