Gas, Power, and Borders: How Turkey Outmaneuvered Rivals in Syria’s Chessboard

By Elijah J. Magnier

The fall of Bashar al-Assad and the swift rise of Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Muhammad al-Joulani, as Syria’s new de facto leader marks a seismic shift in the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. Turkey’s pivotal role in orchestrating and capitalizing on this power transition has cemented its status as a dominant regional powerhouse. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump recently acknowledged Ankara’s strategic triumph, albeit with criticism, stating that “Turkey made an unfriendly move by taking over Syria.” His remarks inadvertently highlight Turkey’s calculated and meticulously executed coup, which succeeded where others had failed.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is reportedly planning a visit to Damascus, fulfilling a promise he made over a decade ago in 2011. At the height of Syria’s conflict, Erdogan vowed to pray at the Umayyad Mosque, symbolizing his vision of a post-Assad Syria aligned with Turkey’s strategic interests. This visit, expected in the coming weeks, marks a significant political and symbolic gesture, underscoring Ankara’s growing influence in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

The move would not only reaffirm Erdogan’s role in shaping Syria’s future but also serve as a powerful message to the region about Turkey’s ascendancy as a dominant actor in the post-conflict Middle East. The visit to the Umayyad Mosque—a revered religious and cultural landmark—would further cement Turkey’s leadership role in guiding Syria’s reconstruction and governance under the new leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa.

Turkey’s success stands in stark contrast to the collective efforts of numerous countries that expended hundreds of billions of dollars and 13 years attempting to overthrow Assad during Syria’s protracted conflict. Two primary operational rooms—one based in Jordan and the other in Turkey—were established to orchestrate the anti-Assad campaign. These initiatives facilitated the influx of tens of thousands of foreign jihadists from the Middle East, Asia, and Arab nations into Syria. Despite this massive mobilisation of resources and manpower, the international coalition failed to achieve its objectives, instead leaving behind a staggering toll of human casualties and a deeply fractured Syrian state.

The conflict has wrought devastation on Syria’s social fabric and infrastructure, creating ripple effects that extend to neighbouring countries. Reconstruction costs are now estimated to range between $500 billion and $900 billion, a monumental sum that underscores the scale of destruction. However, with little prospect of attracting the necessary international funding, Syria faces a grim future, mired in economic stagnation and struggling to recover. The absence of committed financial backers willing to invest in the reconstruction of the Levant further compounds the region’s challenges, leaving Syria trapped in a cycle of instability and hardship.

Ankara, however, adopted a more calculated and strategic approach, exercising patience and