Lebanon’s leadership gamble: A fragile deal undermined

By Elijah J. Magnier

Lebanon’s political scene has once again been thrown into turmoil as the recent elections of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam underscore the country’s deep divisions and regional entanglements. What initially appeared to be a smooth transfer of power, based on a complex deal brokered by key domestic and international players, soon revealed the fragility of Lebanese governance and the precarious balance of power within its borders.

The election of Joseph Aoun: a delicate balancing act

President Joseph Aoun’s rise to power was neither straightforward nor uncontested. In the first round of voting, Aoun fell short of the required 86 votes, securing only 71. His candidacy faced constitutional challenges, as the Lebanese constitution prohibits active military officers from running for office unless they have been out of service for at least two years. His eventual election, with 99 votes, came only after critical last-minute negotiations with Speaker Nabih Berri and Hezbollah.

During a two-hour negotiation, Aoun agreed to several key conditions to secure Shia support:

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